USDA Projects 43.1% Of U.S. Soybean Production Will Be Exported To Foreign Markets
DR. AARON SMITH
KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE
I have received a couple of question concerning price risk management this week. One was a general question while the other was more specific. The use of price risk management may not be for every producer, but it is beneficial to understand how price risk management tools such as feeder cattle futures and Livestock Risk Protection insurance (LRP) work. The benefit of knowing how such tools work is simply being able to use them at a moment’s notice if the situation arrives. Not knowing how they work makes it more difficult to use such tools when needed. There are certainly some that think there is no use for futures, options, and LRP, and given their production model, they may be correct for their operation. However, there are several different production models and these tools can be beneficial in certain situations. These tools may have even more value during periods of strong market prices as the higher investment in animals or higher value of animals places more capital at risk.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES: Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –February $204.78 +3.68; April $203.03 +2.30; June $197.38 +1.68; Feeder cattle – January $278.70 +1.63; March $276.58 +2.50; April $275.45 +3.00; May $273.40 +2.93; March corn closed at $4.87 down 3 cents from Thursday. Please use this link for cattle and market definitions: Cattle and Beef Market Definitions Publication W801
Nearby soybean futures have risen from the December 17th low of $9.66, closing January 24th at $10.55. Moving forward there are four key factors that will determine if (and how dramatically) soybean futures prices will continue to strengthen or if prices will reverse and decline.
- Exports. For the 2024/25 marketing year, USDA projects that 43.1% of U.S. soybean production will be exported to foreign markets. Since 2006, on average 46% of U.S. soybean production is sent to foreign markets. Export sales have been strong, exceeding the 5-average pace, however the South American soybean crop will soon provide substantial competition.
- South American Production and Global Ending Stocks. Brazil is projected to produce another record soybean crop, 6.2 billion bushels. This would be double the amount of soybeans Brazil produced in 2012/13. Argentina is projected to produce 1.9 billion bushels of soybeans this year. There is more uncertainty in the Argentine crop than Brazil, but both have the potential to be very large harvests. If USDA projections are accurate, world soybean production will exceed demand for the third consecutive year and global ending stocks will swell to 4.7 billion bushels.
- U.S. Planted Acres. Currently, the futures market has a price bias towards U.S. farmers planting corn over soybeans. The November soybean-to-December corn futures price ratio is 2.27, which favors a reduction of soybean planted acres to the benefit of corn.
4. Trade Policy and Tariffs/Retaliatory Tariffs. During the 2018 U.S.-China trade war nearby soybean futures prices dropped from $10.75 to $8.26 in four months. Given the uncertainty in trade relations with China and the potential for dramatic price swings purchasing an out of the money put option on unpriced soybeans in storage should be strongly considered. A $10.00 May put option could be purchased for 12 cents setting $9.88 futures floor. Reasonably cheap protection, considering the potential catastrophic drop in prices a new trade war with China could trigger.
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at West, North- west, West-Central, North-Central and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 20 under to 23 over, with an average of 9 over the March futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending January 17 was 1.099 million barrels per day, up 4,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 25.874 million barrels, up 0.86 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for January 10-16 were net sales of 65.4 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 0.4 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 2% compared to last week at 59.7 million bushels – a marketing year high. Corn export sales and commitments were 67% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 63%. Cash prices ranged from $4.46 to $5.16 at elevators and barge points. March 2025 corn futures closed at $4.86, up 2 cents since last Friday. For the week, March 2025 corn futures traded between $4.80 and $4.94. May 2025 corn futures closed at $4.96, up 3 cents since last Friday.
Mar/May and Mar/Dec future spreads were 10 and -25 cents. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.61, up 5 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.70 December 2025 Put Option costing 43 cents establishing a $4.27 futures floor.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee the average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, and West-Central elevators and barge points and weakened at Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Basis ranged from 19 under to 30 over the March futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 12 over. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 54.8 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 0.03 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 30% compared to last week at 38.0 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 85% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 83%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.09 to $10.98. March 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.55, up 21 cents since last Friday. For the week, March 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.39 and $10.76. March soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.20 at the end of the week. May 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.68, up 24 cents since last Friday.
Mar/May and Mar/Nov future spreads were 13 and -7 cents. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.48, up 21 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.60 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 70 cents and set a $9.90 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.27 at the end of the week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for January 23 were 64.97 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 66.97 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) decreased 0.27 cents to 53.71 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 348,900 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year – a marketing year high and 79,800 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 1% compared to last week at 222,600 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 82% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 84%. March 2025 cotton futures closed at 67.61 cents, up 0.01 cents since last Friday. For the week, March 2025 cotton futures traded between 66.76 and 68.44 cents. May 2025 cotton futures closed at 68.67 cents, up 0.04 cents since last Friday.
Mar/May and Mar/Dec cotton futures spreads were 1.06 cents and 1.89 cents. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 69.5 cents, up 0.38 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 70 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 4.43 cents establishing a 65.57 cent futures floor.
Wheat
Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 6.1 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 1.9 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 2% compared to last week at 7.4 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 77% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 87%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.14 to $5.44. March 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.44, up 6 cents since last Friday. The March wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.12. March 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.41 and $5.66 this week. May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.58, up 8 cents since last Friday.
Mar/May and Mar/Jul future spreads were 14 and 26 cents. July cash contracts at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.14 to $5.49. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.70, up 10 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.80 July 2025 Put Option costing 50 cents establishing a $5.30 futures floor. ∆
DR. AARON SMITH: University of Tennessee