March WASDE Report Had Limited Changes To Domestic Corn, Soybeans, Cotton, And Wheat Estimates

DR. AARON SMITH

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

Corn, soybean, cotton, and wheat futures continue to react to the uncertain trade and tariff environment. Daily futures market price volatility continued this week; however prices have moved mostly sideways over the past eight trading days (March 5-14). May corn has traded between $4.50 and $4.77; May soybeans between $9.94 and $10.36; May cotton between $0.628 and $0.676; and May wheat between $5.37 to $5.66. For the time being, prices have stabilized after the initial tariff related price declines. Supply and demand fundamentals will continue to take a back seat to tariffs and trade in determining daily/weekly price reaction. 

December cotton futures have recovered from the recent retaliatory tariff induced low of 66 cents. Prices have returned to the long-term trading range of 68-71 cents. This is a positive development; however, prices remain well below most Tennessee cotton producers’ cost of production and are unlikely to stimulate price fixations or encourage traditional price risk management strategies. Most producers will seek December cotton futures prices above 75 cents before pricing any of their 2025 production. It remains to be seen whether this production or marketing year will provide opportunities to secure prices above 75 cents. Improvement in global demand remains the best chance at price improvements in cotton. Current economic trends in the general global and US economy are not providing an indication that this is likely in the near future.

This week the USDA released the March WASDE report. Overall, the report had limited changes to domestic corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat estimates. However, the report was moderately bullish, due to revisions of foreign supply and demand. Production estimates for corn and soybean in Argentina and Brazil remained unchanged compared to last month. Details of the March WASDE and daily price reaction for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat can be found at: https://arec.tennessee.edu/ extension/tennessee-market-highlights/monthly-crop-comments/. 

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at West, North-west, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points and weakened at North-Central elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 20 under to 25 over, with an average of 8 over the May futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending March 7 was 1.062 million barrels per day, down 31,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 27.376 million barrels, up 0.087 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for February 28-March 6 were net sales of 38.1 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 0.5 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 47% compared to last week at 73.3 mil- lion bushels – a marketing year high. Corn export sales and commitments were 81% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 80%. Cash prices ranged from $4.27 to $4.92 at elevators and barge points. May 2025 corn futures closed at $4.58, down 11 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 corn futures traded between $4.56 and $4.77. July 2025 corn futures closed at $4.67, down 8 cents since last Friday. 

May/Jul and May/Dec future spreads were 9 and -7 cents. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.51, down 3 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.60 December 2025 Put Option costing 40 cents establishing a $4.20 futures floor. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee the average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West- Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 33 under to 20 over the May futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 2 over. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 27.6 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 1.6 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 16% compared to last week at 33.9 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 91% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 91%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.66 to $10.34. May 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.16, down 9 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 soybean futures traded between $9.94 and $10.32. The May soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.22 at the end of the week. July 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.30, down 8 cents since last Friday. 

May/Jul and May/Nov future spreads were 14 and 2 cents. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.18, down 7 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.20 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 59 cents and set a $9.61 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.26 at the end of the week. 

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for March 12 were 64.98 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 66.98 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) increased 1.88 cents to 53.76 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 271,800 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 110,200 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 21% compared to last week at 403,500 bales – a marketing year high. Upland cotton export sales were 98% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 97%. May 2025 cotton futures closed at 67.37 cents, up 1.3 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 cotton futures traded between 65.42 and 67.63 cents. July 2025 cotton futures closed at 68.6 cents, up 1.45 cents since last Friday. 

May/Jul and May/Dec cotton futures spreads were 1.23 cents and 2.61 cents. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 69.98 cents, up 1.52 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 69 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 4.01 cents establishing a 64.99 cent futures floor. 

Wheat

Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 28.8 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 3.0 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 41% compared to last week at 8.2 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 94% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 98%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.97 to $5.33. May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.57, up 6 cents since last Friday. The May wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.22. May 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.46 and $5.66 this week. 

May/Jul and May/Sep future spreads were 16 and 32 cents. July cash contracts at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.24 to $5.69. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.73, up 8 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.80 July 2025 Put Option costing 39 cents establishing a $5.41 futures floor. September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.89, up 8 cents since last Friday.   ∆

DR. AARON SMITH: University of Tennessee