U.S. Planted Acreage Is Currently Estimated To Be 94 Million Acres Of Corn And 84 Million Acres Of Soybeans

DR. AARON SMITH

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

Three major factors influencing corn and soybean prices are South American weather, projected U.S. planted acreage, and tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and trade. 

Brazil’s soybean harvest is over 70% complete and is projected to produce 6.21 billion bushels. 62% (3.876 billion bushels) of Brazil’s soybean production will be exported to international markets. Brazil’s second corn crop will be closely followed between now and harvest which will occur June-September. Currently several major production regions in Brazil have below normal soil moisture which could affect corn production. Brazil corn production is currently estimated, by the USDA, to be 4.96 billion bushels. Argentina is projected to produce 1.8 billion bushels of soybeans and 1.968 billion bushels of corn. Corn and soybean production from both countries will compete for exports with the U.S. production. 

U.S. planted acreage is currently estimated to be 94 million acres of corn and 84 million acres of soybeans. Yield is projected to be 181 bu/acre and 52.5 bu/acre resulting in production of 15.185 billion bushels of corn and 4.45 billion bushels of soybeans. The March 31 Prospective Plantings report will provide updates to acreage estimates based on producer surveys. Ultimately weather will play an important role in final planted acreage estimates. 

For the 2024 crop, 16% of U.S. corn production is projected to be exported with Mexico, China and Canada accounting for 53% of U.S. corn exports. 42% of soybean production is projected to be exported with Canada, China and Mexico accounting for 62% of U.S. soybean exports. On April 2nd the U.S. has indicated that additional tariffs will be imposed on many countries. It is very likely that additional tariffs will result in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural commodities. The uncertainty in tariffs will continue to keep prices low and provide opportunities for South America to capture additional market share at the expense of U.S. producers. 

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at West, North- west, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 20 under to 25 over, with an average of 9 over the May futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending March 14 was 1.105 million barrels per day, up 43,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 26.575 million barrels, down 0.801 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for March 7-13 were net sales of 58.9 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 2.4 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 9% compared to last week at 66.4 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 84% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 83%. Cash prices ranged from $4.30 to $4.94 at elevators and barge points. May 2025 corn futures closed at $4.64, up 6 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 corn futures traded between $4.55 and $4.70. July 2025 corn futures closed at $4.71, up 4 cents since last Friday. 

May/Jul and May/Dec future spreads were 7 and -13 cents. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.51, unchanged since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.60 December 2025 Put Option costing 39 cents establishing a $4.21 futures floor. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee the average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West- Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 33 under to 20 over the May futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 2 over. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 13.0 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 0.003 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 36% compared to last week at 21.8 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 91% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 92%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.70 to $10.36. May 2025 soy- bean futures closed at $10.09, down 7 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.04 and $10.21. The May soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.17 at the end of the week. July 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.21, down 9 cents since last Friday. 

May/Jul and May/Nov future spreads were 12 and -2 cents. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.07, down 11 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.20 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 65 cents and set a $9.55 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.23 at the end of the week. 

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for March 20 were 63.58 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 65.58 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) increased 0.87 cents to 54.63 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 101,100 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 57,900 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 13% compared to last week at 351,000 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 99% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 99%. May 2025 cotton futures closed at 65.27 cents, down 2.1 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 cotton futures traded between 65.24 and 67.8 cents. July 2025 cotton futures closed at 66.79 cents, down 1.81 cents since last Friday. 

May/Jul and May/Dec cotton futures spreads were 1.52 cents and 3.39 cents. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 68.66 cents, down 1.32 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 69 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 3.9 cents establishing a 65.1 cent futures floor. 

Wheat

Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales cancellations of 9.1 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and net sales of 18.0 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 110% compared to last week at 17.3 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 93% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 99%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.01 to $5.19. May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.58, up 1 cent since last Friday. The May wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.20. May 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.52 and $5.75 this week. 

May/Jul and May/Sep future spreads were 16 and 33 cents. July cash contracts at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.28 to $5.77. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.74, up 1 cent since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.80 July 2025 Put Option costing 37 cents establishing a $5.43 futures floor. September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.91, up 2 cents since last Friday.  ∆

DR. AARON SMITH: University of Tennessee