Corn, Soybean, And Wheat Futures Prices Increase

DR. AARON SMITH

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

Corn, soybean, and wheat futures prices increased dramatically this week in spite of the uncertainty in trade policy / tariffs and the chaos in equity and bond markets. Price increases for nearby and harvest wheat, soybean, and corn futures contracts made up the declines from the previous week that occurred due to tariff and reciprocal tariff announcements. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures prices remain 3- 11% below February highs. 

On Friday April 11, December corn futures broke through a key resistance point at $4.60/bu. For those Tennessee farmers that have not started pricing the 2025 crop, December corn futures above $4.50/bu represent a good starting point to remove some futures price risk (basis could be secured now or left to fix at an alternative date depending on local basis offerings). Pricing into a futures market rally, through incremental sales, is a strategy worth considering, and one that will take some of the emotion out of marketing decisions. For example, starting at a December futures price of $4.50/bu, price 5% of projected 2025 production. For each additional 10 cent increase in futures price commit an additional 5% of estimated production up to a maximum of 35% of projected 2025 production. Pricing more than 35% of the crop before June can be risky and can result in exchanging price risk for production risk or having limited production to price should a bullish weather market occur in June/July. The maximum amount to be priced before June can be a personal preference based on the farmers’ risk tolerance or the variability in yield for the farm. This incremental pricing strategy would establish an average futures price of $4.80/bu on 35% of projected production if the December corn futures price rallied to $5.10/bu. However, it would also put some sales (10% at an average price of $4.55/bu as of April 11) on the books if the current rally stalled or reversed. A short hedge or hedge-to-arrive contract can be used to fix the futures price. Cash forward contracts fix the futures price and the basis. 

The April WASDE report was released on Thursday. Details of the report for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton can be found at: 

https://arec.tennessee.edu/extension/tennessee-market-highlights/monthly-crop-comments/. Corn 

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) weakened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 15 under to 25 over, with an average of 11 over the May futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending April 4 was 1.021 million barrels per day, down 42,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 27.034 million barrels, up 0.422 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for March 28-April 3 were net sales of 30.9 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 9.3 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 6% compared to last week at 66.9 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 88% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 90%. Cash prices ranged from $4.49 to $5.08 at elevators and barge points. May 2025 corn futures closed at $4.90, up 30 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 corn futures traded between $4.54 and $4.90. July 2025 corn futures closed at $4.97, up 30 cents since last Friday. May/Jul and May/Dec future spreads were 7 and -27 cents. 

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn planted at 2% compared to 3% last year and a 5-year average of 2%. In Tennessee, corn planted was estimated at 3% compared to 6% last year and a 5-year average of 4%. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.63, up 17 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.70 December 2025 Put Option costing 37 cents establishing a $4.33 futures floor. This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $4.22 to $4.73 at elevators and barge points. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee the average soybean basis weakened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West- Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 33 under to 12 over the May futures con- tract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 5 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 6.3 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 9% compared to last week at 28.1 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 93% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 94%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.37 to $10.39. May 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.42, up 65 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 soybean futures traded between $9.69 and $10.44. The May soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.13 at the end of the week. July 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.53, up 60 cents since last Friday. May/Jul and May/Nov future spreads were 11 and -17 cents. 

In Tennessee, soybeans planted were estimated at 2% compared to 4% last year and a 5-year average of 1%. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.25, up 41 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.40 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 65 cents and set a $9.75 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.21 at the end of the week. Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged between $9.37 and $10.03 this week at elevators and barge points. 

Cotton 

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for April 10 were 64.22 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 66.22 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) decreased 2.12 cents to 53.1 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 115,100 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 18,900 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 4% compared to last week at 377,200 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 103% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 103%. May 2025 cotton futures closed at 65.89 cents, up 2.53 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 cotton futures traded between 61.81 and 67.62 cents. July 2025 cotton futures closed at 67.01 cents, up 2.45 cents since last Friday. May/Jul and May/Dec cotton futures spreads were 1.12 cents and 2.62 cents. 

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton planted at 4% compared to 5% last year and a 5-year average of 6%. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 68.51 cents, up 2.35 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 69 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 4.57 cents establishing a 64.43 cent futures floor. 

Wheat 

Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 3.9 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 4.0 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 32% compared to last week at 12.5 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 95% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 102%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.72 to $4.92. May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.55, up 26 cents since last Friday. The May wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.13. May 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.25 and $5.56 this week. May/Jul and May/Sep future spreads were 15 and 29 cents. 

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat condition at 48% good-to-excellent and 21% poor-to-very poor and winter wheat headed at 5% compared to 6% last year and a 5-year average of 5%. Spring wheat planted was estimated at 3% compared to 3% last year and a 5-year average of 3%. In Tennessee, winter wheat condition was estimated at 68% good-to -excellent and 8% poor-to-very poor; winter wheat jointing at 38% compared to 56% last year and a 5-year average of 50%; and winter wheat headed at 0% compared to 2% last week and a 5-year average of 1%. July cash contracts at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.01 to $5.48. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.70, up 28 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.75 July 2025 Put Option costing 41 cents establishing a $5.34 futures floor. September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.84, up 27 cents since last Friday.   ∆

DR. AARON SMITH: University of Tennessee