Current Corn Prices For Fall Delivery Are Close To $4.50

DR. AARON SMITH

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

Updating production costs and yield potential on at least a monthly basis can help inform marketing decisions during the production year. At the start of each production year most producers will estimate a basic crop budget and determine yield expectations for the commodities grown on their farms. This helps to determine financing requirements, and the amount of capital that may need to be invested into the crop. However, very rarely do initial projections for a production year match the end of year final cost and yield estimates. Updating crop expense estimates and yield potential at the end of each month will allow marketing decision makers to understand current financial risk exposure during the production year. 

For example, after the crop is planted producers will know seed expense (initial and replant if necessary), preplant chemical costs, and initial fertilizer costs. UT crop budgets estimate seed, burndown, initial fertilizer costs, and machinery expenses for each function at $330 per acre for corn (approximately 40% of total budgeted costs). The $330 per acre in initial expense is now a sunk cost (the money/resource has been utilized and is not recoverable). 

Following planting, projected yield is most likely to be close to the initial projected yield (175 bu/acre for the UT crop budget) but could be adjusted lower if adverse conditions have occurred early in the production season in your area. 

Current corn prices for fall delivery are close to $4.50. At a corn price of $4.50, 73 bushels of production ($330 / $4.50) will be needed to pay $330 in sunk costs. 73 bushels is 42% (73/175) of projected production. A marketer can compare the percentage of sunk costs, relative to budgeted expenses (40%), to the amount of projected production required to cover the sunk cost (42%). If the percent of sunk cost is lower than the percent of projected production required to cover the sunk cost, then the producer is on an unprofitable trajectory. If it is higher the producer is on a profitable marketing trajectory. Using this method will allow you to examine financial risk exposure as yield, costs, and prices continue to evolve through the production year. 

On Monday the USDA will release the May WASDE report. The May WASDE report provides the initial WASDE estimates for the 2025 production year. The report essentially sets the baseline for the upcoming market year. Adjustments to this baseline will be modified as additional information is revealed (acres planted, drought, export sales etc.). The report has the potential to move corn, soybean, cotton, and wheat markets. 

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) weakened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, and West-Central and strengthened at Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 25 under to 30 over, with an average of 6 over the July futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending May 2 was 1.020 million barrels per day, down 20,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 25.191 million barrels, down 0.198 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for April 25-May 1 were net sales of 65.4 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 0.7 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 14% compared to last week at 71.6 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 93% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 95%. Cash prices ranged from $4.42 to $4.86 at elevators and barge points. July 2025 corn futures closed at $4.49, down 20 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 corn futures traded between $4.42 and $4.70. September 2025 corn futures closed at $4.29, down 11 cents since last Friday. Jul/Sep and Jul/Dec future spreads were -20 and -7 cents. 

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn planted at 40% compared to 24% last week, 35% last year, and a 5-year average of 39%; and corn emerged at 11% compared to 5% last week, 11% last year, and a 5-year average of 9%. In Tennessee, corn planted was estimated at 61% compared to 41% last week, 63% last year, and a 5-year average of 62%; and corn emerged at 30% compared to 15% last week, 30% last year, and a 5-year average of 30%. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.42, down 8 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.50 December 2025 Put Option costing 34 cents establishing a $4.16 futures floor. This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $4.12 to $4.46 at elevators and barge points. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee the average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West- Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 40 under to 9 over the July futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 9 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 13.8 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 0.4 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 56% compared to last week at 9.5 million bushels – a marketing year low. Soybean export sales and commitments were 96% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 97%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.99 to $10.54. July 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.51, down 7 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.36 and $10.58. The July soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.34 at the end of the week. August 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.47, down 4 cents since last Friday. Jul/Aug and Jul/Nov future spreads were -4 and -21 cents. 

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybeans planted at 30% compared to 18% last week, 24% last year, and a 5- year average of 23%; and soybeans emerged at 7% compared to 8% last year and a 5-year average of 5%. In Tennessee, soybeans planted were estimated at 35% compared to 25% last week, 37% last year, and a 5-year average of 23%; and soybeans emerged at 9% compared to 0% last week, 10 % last year and a 5-year average of 4%. Oct/Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.79 to $10.46 for the week. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.30, unchanged since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.40 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 58 cents and set a $9.82 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.33 at the end of the week. 

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for May 8 were 64.94 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 66.94 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) decreased 0.13 cents to 54.81 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 65,800 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 37,400 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 8% compared to last week at 394,900 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 108% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 108%. July 2025 cotton futures closed at 66.61 cents, down 1.8 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 cotton futures traded between 68.35 and 70.55 cents. Jul/Dec and Jul/Mar cotton futures spreads were 2.06 cents and 3.32 cents. 

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton planted at 21% compared to 15% last week, 23% last year, and a 5-year average of 20%. In Tennessee, cotton planted was estimated at 13% compared to 6% last week, 14% last year, and a 5-year average of 8%. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 68.67 cents, down 1.04 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 69 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 3.96 cents establishing a 65.04 cent futures floor. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 69.93 cents, down 0.92 cents since last Friday. 

Wheat

Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 2.6 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 18.1 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up less than 1% compared to last week at 18.1 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 97% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 104%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.44 to $4.71. 

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat condition at 51% good-to-excellent and 18% poor-to-very poor; winter wheat headed at 39% compared to 27% last week, 41% last year, and a 5-year average of 33%; spring wheat planted was estimated at 44% compared to 30% last week, 45% last year, and a 5-year average of 34%; and spring wheat emerged at 13% compared to 5% last week, 11% last year, and a 5-year average of 9%. In Tennessee, winter wheat condition was estimated at 70% good-to-excellent and 6% poor-to-very poor; winter wheat jointing at 92% compared to 89% last week, and 95% last year; and winter wheat headed at 73% compared to 49% last week, 80% last year, and a 5-year average of 74%. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.21, down 22 cents since last Friday. July 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.20 and $5.48 this week. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.40 July 2025 Put Option costing 33 cents establishing a $5.07 futures floor. Jul/Sep and Jul/Dec future spreads were 15 and 37 cents. The July wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.16. July cash contracts at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.89 to $5.36. September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.36, down 20 cents since last Friday. December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.58, down 20 cents since last Friday.   ∆

DR. AARON SMITH: University of Tennessee