Beef Cattle Slaughter And Production
DR. ANDREW P. GRIFFITH
KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE
There have been some articles written recently discussing cattle slaughter and beef production focused on certain implications of total beef production relative to changes in the total number of head slaughtered. This article is not meant to replicate those articles, but rather to inform readers of actual slaughter and production numbers and how it influences some of the decision making in the industry. There is no way this article can address all of the implications of slaughter rates and beef production.
The most appropriate place to begin this discussion is with slaughter rates of steers, heifers and beef cows, but it is also appropriate to discuss dairy cow slaughter. Federally inspected steer slaughter through the first 21 weeks of 2025 totaled 5.86 million head, which is a decline of 1.9 percent compared to the same time period in 2024. Total federally inspected heifer slaughter over the same time period totaled 3.96 million head, which was a 2.5 percent decline compared to the same 21 weeks in 2024. Beef cow slaughter the first 21 weeks of 2025 was 700 head shy of 1 million head. This represents a 16.7 percent decline in beef cow slaughter relative to 2024 while dairy cow slaughter totaled 1.06 million head to start 2025, which is 8.3 percent lower than the first 21 weeks of 2024. Bull slaughter is less relevant, but it totaled 165,500 head through the same 21-week period, which is a 12.0 percent decline compared to 2024.
At the time of this writing, federally inspected beef production in 2025 totaled 11.44 billion pounds compared to 11.57 billion pounds during the same time period of 2024. This represents a 1.2 percent decline in total beef production compared to the previous year. It is clear beef production has not declined at the same pace as slaughter rates as the slaughter rate declines in all classes of cattle exceeds the decline in beef production. The primary factor at play is heavier carcass weights. The average dressed weight of a steer in 2025 is nearly 27 pounds heavier than the same time period in 2024 while heifer dressed weights are more than 26 pounds heavier than a year ago. Similarly, slaughter cow dressed weights are running more than 22 pounds heavier in 2025 than the same time period in 2024.
Given the aforementioned information, the decreased beef production year-to-date originates from the decline in cow slaughter. Feedlots have incentive to grow finished cattle larger resulting in more fed beef production while non-fed beef production (slaughter cows) is declining. The fact consumers continue to purchase beef at higher prices with only a small decline in production tells the story that beef demand remains strong. This is true for both muscle cuts and ground beef products. Speaking of ground product, the reduction in non-fed beef production supports the beef import market. United States consumers have a strong demand for ground beef products, but domestic production of ground product cannot keep pace with domestic consumption unless traditional muscle cuts are added to the grind mix. Grinding whole muscle cuts is not economically efficient when those cuts have a higher value as a muscle cut. Thus, this brings the conversation to imports.
Beef imports play a vital role in the domestic beef market, and that role is primarily lean grinding beef to mix with fattier domestic ground product. There are certainly people who will disagree that imports can add value to beef in the domestic market, but no amount of data or analysis will convince those people otherwise. Imports of lean grinding beef allows packers to market muscle cuts to higher valued markets than the grind market. Alternatively, there are times when it is appropriate to grind certain muscle cuts due to their relatively low value, but this is more the exception than the rule. This short article does not cover all the bases of this topic, but it does provide some perspective of what is occurring as it relates to slaughter rates and beef production. ∆
DR. ANDREW P. GRIFFITH
UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE