Corn Exports For The Upcoming Marketing Year Are Projected Highest In Five Years

DR. AARON SMITH

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

December corn futures have pushed lower since the one year high of $4.79 3⁄4 on February 19 th primary production regions with less than 4% of production in severe drought or worse. Global supplies and strong U.S. exports continue to provide price support. Global corn stocks are projected at 10.835 billion bushels, down 386 million bushels compared to last year. U.S. corn exports for the upcoming marketing year are projected at 2.675 billion bushels, the highest in five years. Where trepidation enters the corn market is the U.S. acreage estimate (95.3 million acres planted). Due to good planting conditions and a higher corn price (and projected crop insurance price), many analysts think that more corn acreage will be planted than the current USDA estimate. June 30th USDA will provide an update to the current USDA acres planted estimate. 

A strong finish to the week propelled November soybean prices towards a key point of resistance at $10.60. Prices have traded mostly between $10.20 and $10.60 since the end of March. The exception being the two weeks following April 2nd when Liberation Day tariffs were announced causing futures prices to fall to $9.71 1⁄4. Besides weather, the next potential market mover for soybeans is the USDA Acreage report that will be released June 30 th to be in drought with less than 2% in severe drought or worse. Drought can change quickly; however most major production regions are off to a good start in terms of moisture. 

The December cotton contract has traded above 70 cents less than 16% of the trading days in 2025 (18 out of 113 trading days). The high was 70.93 cents on April 2 nd. Prices below 75 cents are very difficult for most Tennessee producers to justify establishing a price. Most producers’ breakeven prices will be closer to 80 cents. At 70 cents most producers will not be able to cover their cash costs let alone the economic costs of production if average yields are obtained. Unfortunately, current cotton prices leave only two potential pathways (and both may have to occur) for a profitable year: 1) record yields or 2) government payments. The situation is very challenging and there is not much evidence that a substantial improvement in prices is in the cards for 2025. 

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) weakened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 10 under to 30 over, with an average of 10 over the July futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending June 6 was 1.120 million barrels per day, up 15,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 23.734 million barrels, down 0.706 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for May 30-June 5 were net sales of 31.2 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and net sales cancellations of 1.2 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 3% compared to last week at 66.6 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 100% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 99%. Cash prices ranged from $4.27 to $4.69 at elevators and barge points. July 2025 corn futures closed at $4.44, up 2 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 corn futures traded between $4.29 and $4.45. September 2025 corn futures closed at $4.28, down 5 cents since last Friday. Jul/Sep and Jul/Dec future spreads were - 16 and -1 cents. 

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 71% good-to-excellent and 5% poor-to-very poor; corn plant- ed at 97% compared to 93% last week, 94% last year, and a 5-year average of 97%; and corn emerged at 87% compared to 78% last week, 83% last year, and a 5-year average of 87%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 66% good-to-excellent and 11% poor-to-very poor; corn planted at 95% compared to 90% last week, 96% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%; and corn emerged at 86% compared to 82% last week, 88% last year, and a 5-year average of 92%. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.43, down 6 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.45 December 2025 Put Option costing 27 cents establishing a $4.18 futures floor. This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $4.09 to $4.29 at elevators and barge points. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee the average soybean basis remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 40 under to 7 over the July futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 11 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 2.3 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year – a marketing year low - and 2.11 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 47% compared to last week at 16.7 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 97% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 100%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.02 to $10.65. July 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.69, up 12 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.38 and $10.71. The July soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.41 at the end of the week. August 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.69, up 19 cents since last Friday. Jul/Aug and Jul/Nov future spreads were 0 and -15 cents. 

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 68% good-to-excellent and 5% poor-to-very poor; soybeans planted at 90% compared to 84% last week, 86% last year, and a 5-year average of 88%; and soybeans emerged at 75% compared to 63% last week, 68% last year, and a 5-year average of 72%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 62% good-to-excellent compared to 11% poor-to-very poor, soybeans planted were estimated at 73% compared to 65% last week, 73% last year, and a 5-year average of 73%; and soybeans emerged at 60% compared to 53% last week, 60% last year, and a 5-year average of 59%. Oct/Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.87 to $10.58 for the week. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.54, up 17 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.60 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 49 cents and set a $10.11 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to- corn price ratio was 2.38 at the end of the week. 

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for June 12 were 63.39 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 65.39 cents/lb (31-3-35). Upland cotton adjusted world price (AWP) increased 0.18 cents to 54.02 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 60,200 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 36,100 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 25% compared to last week at 236,300 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 112% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 114%. July 2025 cotton futures closed at 65.36 cents, down 0.26 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 cotton futures traded between 64.69 and 66.29 cents. Jul/Dec and Jul/Mar cotton futures spreads were 3.7 cents and 2.48 cents. 

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 49% good-to-excellent and 21% poor-to-very poor; cotton planted at 76% compared to 66% last week, 79% last year, and a 5-year average of 80%; and cotton squaring at 12% compared to 8% last week, 13% last year, and a 5-year average of 12%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 44% good-to-excellent and 32% poor-to-very poor; cotton planted at 85% compared to 81% last week, 91% last year, and a 5-year average of 93%; and cotton squaring at 7% compared to 4% last week, 12% last year, and a 5-year average of 10%. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 67.84 cents, down 0.37 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 68 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 3.38 cents establishing a 64.62 cent futures floor. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 69.06 cents, down 0.37 cents since last Friday. 

Wheat 

July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.43, down 11 cents since last Friday. July 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.22 and $5.57 this week. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.45 July 2025 Put Option costing 9 cents establishing a $5.36 futures floor. Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 14.3 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 42% compared to last week at 11.5 million bushels. A total of 6.8 million bushels in sales were carried over from the 2024/2025 marketing year, which ended May 31. Accumulated exports for the 2024/25 marketing year were 775.6 million bushels, up 14 percent from the prior year’s total of 680.8 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 27% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2025/26 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 24%. Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat condition at 54% good-to-excellent and 16% poor-to-very poor; winter wheat headed at 88% compared to 83% last week, 88% last year, and a 5-year average of 86%; winter wheat harvested at 4% compared to 3% last week, 11% last year, and a 5-year average of 7%; spring wheat condition at 53% good-to-excellent and 9% poor-to-very poor; and spring wheat emerged at 82% compared to 73% last week, 86% last year, and a 5-year average of 81%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.81 to $5.45. 

Jul/Sep and Jul/Dec future spreads were 16 and 37 cents. The July wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.22. September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.59, down 9 cents since last Friday. December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.80, down 9 cents since last Friday.   ∆

DR. AARON SMITH

UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE