July 2025 Wheat Futures Closed Up Since Last Friday
DR. AARON SMITH
KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE
So far, harvest corn, soybean, and cotton futures prices have been relatively boring (low prices; small trading ranges) in 2025. From January 1 to June 20, the December corn contract traded between $4.35 and $4.80, a $0.45 range; the November soybean contract between $9.78 and $10.74, a $0.96 cent range; and the December cotton contract between $0.662 and $0.708, a 4.7 cent range. For the December cotton contract, this is the smallest trading range going back to 2010. The average range (maximum less minimum futures closing price), from 2010 to 2024 was 17 cents, the previous low, in 2014, was a 5.3 cent trading range. For the December corn contract the only year with a lower trading range was 2017 when the contract traded in a $0.27 cent range from January 1 to June 20. The average range for corn was $0.98 from 2010 to 2024. For the November soybean contract, this is the smallest trading range going back to 2010. The average range, from 2010 to 2024, was $2.87 cents, the previous low, in 2024, was a $1.11 trading range.
There are still 5-6 months remaining before the harvest contracts go off the board, so prices and trading ranges have the potential to change, but historically this has not occurred. For corn, years with the smallest previous trading ranges (2017, 2018, and 2024), had final (Jan 1 to Dec 15) harvest futures contract price ranges of $3.36 to $4.15, $3.43 to $4.27, and $3.87 to $4.99. For soybeans, years with the smallest previous trading ranges (2015, 2017, and 2024), had final (Jan 1 to Nov 15) harvest futures contract price ranges of $8.59 to $10.39, $9.11 to $10.43, and $9.57 to $12.28. For cotton, years with the smallest previous trading ranges (2015, 2017, and 2023), had final (Jan 1 to Dec 10) harvest futures contract price ranges of $0.60 to $0.679, $0.664 to $0.757, and $0.749 to $0.90. Ultimately the weather will dictate price direction and whether the trading ranges expand lower or higher.
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North- Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 10 under to 30 over, with an average of 10 over the July futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending June 13 was 1.109 million barrels per day, down 11,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 24.120 million barrels, up 0.386 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for June 6-12 were net sales of 35.6 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 6.1 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 3% compared to last week at 68.7 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 98% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 99%. Cash prices ranged from $4.21 to $4.65 at elevators and barge points. July 2025 corn futures closed at $4.28, down 16 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 corn futures traded between $4.28 and $4.46. September 2025 corn futures closed at $4.25, down 3 cents since last Friday. Jul/Sep and Jul/Dec future spreads were -3 and -2 cents.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 72% good-to-excellent and 5% poor-to-very poor; and corn emerged at 9% compared to 87% last week, 92% last year, and a 5-year average of 94%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 67% good-to-excellent and 10% poor-to-very poor; and corn emerged at 92% compared to 86% last week, 94% last year, and a 5-year average of 97%. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.41, down 2 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.45 December 2025 Put Option costing 26 cents establishing a $4.19 futures floor. This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $4.07 to $4.29 at elevators and barge points.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee the average soybean basis remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 40 under to 5 over the July futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 12 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 19.8 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 2.8 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 10% compared to last week at 14.9 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 98% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 101%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.29 to $10.80. July 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.68, down 1 cent since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.63 and $10.80. The July soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.50 at the end of the week. August 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.71, up 2 cents since last Friday. Jul/Aug and Jul/Nov future spreads were 3 and -8 cents.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 66% good-to-excellent and 7% poor-to-very poor; soybeans planted at 93% compared to 90% last week, 92% last year, and a 5-year average of 94%; and soybeans emerged at 84% compared to 75% last week, 80% last year, and a 5-year average of 83%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 66% good-to-excellent compared to 10% poor-to-very poor, soybeans planted were estimated at 78% compared to 73% last week, 82% last year, and a 5-year average of 81%; and soybeans emerged at 66% compared to 60% last week, 68% last year, and a 5-year average of 69%. Oct/Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $10.20 to $10.75 for the week. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.60, up 6 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.70 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 47 cents and set a $10.23 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.40 at the end of the week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for June 18 were 64.86 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 66.86 cents/lb (31-3-35). Upland cotton adjusted world price (AWP) increased 0.01 cents to 54.03 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 83,200 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 274,900 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 13% compared to last week at 204,700 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 109% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 115%. July 2025 cotton futures closed at 64.12 cents, down 1.24 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 cotton futures traded between 64.0 and 65.7 cents. Jul/Dec and Jul/Mar cotton futures spreads were 2.64 cents and 3.82 cents.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 48% good-to-excellent and 19% poor-to-very poor; cotton planted at 85% compared to 76% last week, 89% last year, and a 5-year average of 90%; cotton squaring at 19% compared to 12% last week, 21% last year, and a 5-year average of 17%; and cotton setting bolls at 3% compared to 5% last year and a 5- year average of 3%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 53% good-to-excellent and 16% poor-to-very poor; cotton planted at 87% compared to 85% last week, 95% last year, and a 5-year average of 96%; and cotton squaring at 10% compared to 7% last week, 25% last year, and a 5-year average of 19%. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 66.76 cents, down 1.08 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 67 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 3.19 cents establishing a 63.81 cent futures floor. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 67.94 cents, down 1.12 cents since last Friday.
Wheat
July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.67, up 24 cents since last Friday. July 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.47 and $5.94 this week. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.70 July 2025 Put Option costing 3 cents establishing a $5.67 futures floor. Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 15.7 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 16% compared to last week at 13.4 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 28% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2025/26 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 26%. Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat condition at 52% good-to- excellent and 19% poor-to-very poor; winter wheat headed at 93% compared to 88% last week, 93% last year, and a 5-year average of 92%; winter wheat harvested at 10% compared to 4% last week, 25% last year, and a 5-year average of 16%; spring wheat condition at 57% good-to-excellent and 9% poor-to-very poor; spring wheat emerged at 89% compared to 82% last week, 94% last year, and a 5-year average of 92%; and spring wheat headed at 4% compared to 4% last year, and a 5-year average of 6%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.76 to $5.77.
Jul/Sep and Jul/Dec future spreads were 16 and 39 cents. The July wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.32. September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.83, up 24 cents since last Friday. December 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.06, up 26 cents since last Friday. ∆
AARON SMITH
UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE