Crop Conditions Continue To Push Corn And Soybean Prices Lower

DR. AARON SMITH

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

Crop conditions continue to push corn and soybean prices lower. 93% of corn and 94% of soybean production is estimated to be in fair, good, or excellent condition. For this week in the year, the U.S. crop is in fantastic condition. Unfortunately, this has pushed prices lower. December corn and November soybean futures prices closed August 1 at $4.10 3⁄4 and $9.89 1⁄4, down 36 1⁄4 cents and 85 1⁄4 cents since June 20 . 

Acreage data and initial yield estimates will be released in August (FSA acreage data and NASS yield estimates). National yield estimates are very likely to be above the USDA trendline yields of 181 bu/acre and 52.5 bu/acre for corn and soybeans. How high the initial survey-based yield estimates are will dictate when corn and soybean futures set a low (and how low the market goes). Last year the corn market set a low on August 26 at $3.85 before rallying to $5.20 by mid-February and soybeans set a futures market low on December 19 at $9.47 before increasing to $10.79 in early February. 

Cotton prices have not been able to gain any positive traction. The December futures contract has been stuck below 70 cents since December 2024. This week’s tariff actions will not do cotton prices any favors as demand continues to remain elusive. The March contract consistently traded between 68 and 71 cents, however on August 1 prices broke lower, closing the week at 67.69 cents. Good conditions in the U.S. southern plains and low global demand continue to be the primary cause of low cotton prices. 

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at West, North-west, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 5 under to 28 over, with an average of 16 over the September futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending July 25 was 1.096 million barrels per day, up 18,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 24.716 million barrels, up 0.272 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for July 18-24 were net sales of 13.4 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 74.5 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 41% compared to last week at 58.6 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 101% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 102%. Cash prices ranged from $3.84 to $4.22 at elevators and barge points. September 2025 corn futures closed at $3.89, down 10 cents since last Friday. For the week, September 2025 corn futures traded between $3.87 and $4.00. Sep/Dec and Sep/Mar future spreads were 21 and 39 cents. 

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 73% good-to-excellent and 7% poor-to-very poor; corn silking at 76% compared to 56% last week, 75% last year, and a 5-year average of 77%; and corn dough at 26% compared to 14% last week, 28% last year, and a 5-year average of 24%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 67% good-to-excellent and 9% poor-to-very poor; corn silking at 89% compared to 85% last week, 91% last year, and a 5-year average of 92%; and corn dough at 59% compared to 43% last week, 59% last year, and a 5-year average of 56%. This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $3.71 to $4.04 at elevators and barge points. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.10, down 9 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.15 December 2025 Put Option costing 17 cents establishing a $3.98 futures floor. March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.28, down 8 cents since last Friday. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points and weakened at North Central elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 49 under to 25 over the August futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 11 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 21.8 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 1.4 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 39% compared to last week at 18.4 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 101% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 103%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.16 to $10.14. September 2025 soybean futures closed at $9.69, down 33 cents since last Friday. For the week, August 2025 soybean futures traded between $9.66 and $9.99. The September soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.59 at the end of the week. Sep/Nov and Sep/Jan future spreads were 20 and 38 cents. 

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 70% good-to-excellent and 6% poor-to-very poor; soybeans blooming at 76% compared to 62% last week, 75% last year, and a 5-year average of 76%; and soybeans setting pods at 41% compared to 26% last week, 42% last year, and a 5-year average of 42%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 63% good-to-excellent compared to 12% poor-to-very poor; soybeans blooming at 69% compared to 59% last week, 77% last year, and a 5-year average of 71%; and soybeans setting pods at 44% compared to 32% last week, 55% last year, and a 5-year average of 44%. Oct/Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.39 to $10.23 for the week. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $9.89, down 32 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $9.90 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 27 cents and set a $9.63 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.41 at the end of the week. January 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.07, down 31 cents since last Friday. 

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for July 31 were 64.36 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 66.36 cents/lb (31-3-35). Upland cotton adjusted world price (AWP) decreased 0.43 cents to 54.52 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 39,100 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and of 71,700 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 25% compared to last week at 230,900 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 107% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 116%. 

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 55% good-to-excellent and 14% poor-to-very poor; cotton squaring at 80% compared to 71% last week, 86% last year, and a 5-year average of 83%; and cotton setting bolls at 44% compared to 33% last week, 52% last year, and a 5-year average of 46%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 51% good -to-excellent and 14% poor-to-very poor; cotton squaring at 72% compared to 69% last week, 93% last year, and a 5-year average of 88%; and cotton setting bolls at 45% compared to 32% last week, 62% last year, and a 5-year average of 52%. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 66.36 cents, down 1.86 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 cotton futures traded between 66.34 and 68.77 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.33 cents and 2.5 cents. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 67 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 2.33 cents establishing a 64.67 cent futures floor. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 67.69 cents, down 1.96 cents since last Friday. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 68.86 cents, down 1.85 cents since last Friday. 

Wheat 

Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 21.8 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year and 1.4 million bushels for the 2026/27 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 61% compared to last week at 10.9 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 41% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2025/26 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 39%. Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat harvested at 80% compared to 73% last week, 81% last year, and a 5-year average of 81%; spring wheat condition at 49% good-to-excellent and 18% poor-to-very poor; spring wheat headed at 92% compared to 87% last week, 93% last year, and a 5-year average of 95%; and spring wheat harvested at 1% compared to 1% last year and a 5-year average of 3%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.74 to $5.14. 

September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.16, down 22 cents since last Friday. September 2025 wheat futures traded be- tween $5.16 and $5.40 this week. Sep/Dec and Sep/Jul future spreads were 21 and 59 cents. The September wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.33. December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.37, down 21 cents since last Friday. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.75, down 20 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.80 July 2026 Put Option costing 48 cents establishing a $5.32 futures floor.   ∆

DR. AARON SMITH

UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE