Is Heifer Retention Taking Place?
DR. ANDREW P. GRIFFITH
KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE
The July 1, 2025 Cattle Inventory report was released towards the end of July along with the July 1 Cattle on Feed report. These were two highly anticipated reports that received more hype and interest than they probably deserved. The reason interest was high is because these two reports were expected to provide considerable insight into heifer retention and changes in beef cow herd size. They provided as much as they could, but it is difficult to say they were any more revealing than what was already known or presumed from other data. Regardless, this is a good time to briefly discuss what the surveys are estimating as it relates to beef heifer retention for beef cow replacement and expected changes in the size of the beef cow herd.
The July 1 Cattle Inventory report for 2025 will be compared to the 2023 report in this article, because there was no July 1 report for 2024. Thus, these comparisons are a little more difficult to interpret since the comparison is not year-over-year. The estimated number of beef cows on July 1 was 28.65 million head, which is 350,000 head less than 2023. Similarly, the quantity of heifers held for beef cow replacement was 3.7 million head, down 100,000 head from two years ago. Furthermore, the total quantity of “other heifers” was down 200,000 head compared to 2023 while the calf crop estimate for 2025 was 33.1 million head, which represents a 430,000 head decline from the 2024 actual calf crop.
As it relates to the July 1 Cattle on Feed report, one of the main pieces of information in this report was the percentage of heifers on feed relative to the total number of cattle on feed. This is a value that is reported on a quarterly basis and the percentage of heifers on feed relative to the total number of cattle on feed was 38.1 percent. This value has been between 37 and 40 percent for the past seven years. This is important because the last time U.S. cattle producers participated in rapid beef cow herd expansion was 2014 through 2017 when the percentage of heifers on feed as a percent of total cattle on feed was mainly between 31 and 34 percent.
These two reports would indicate there are thoughts of expanding the beef cattle herd, but very few people have been making a move to expand the herd. Weekly heifer and beef cow slaughter data further support the aforementioned reports and statements. Beef cow slaughter year-to-date is down 16.7 percent at the time of this writing while heifer slaughter is down 3.7 percent year-to-date. The reduction in beef cow slaughter would indicate producers are attempting to keep cows to get another calf or two out of them, which makes sense given the calf price level. Alternatively, the 3.7 percent decline in heifer slaughter should be thought of relative to steer slaughter, which is down 3.3 percent year-to-date as of this writing. Thus, heifer slaughter has not slowed much through the end of July.
None of this is negative information nor should it be said cattle producers are not expanding the beef cattle herd. Most market observers could deduce that heifer retention would not start in earnest until the 2025 calf crop was weaned. Thus, producers should be keeping their eyes and ears open to what is happening the last quarter of 2025 with heifers.
It would be fairly easy to predict that producers will retain a larger number of heifers at weaning this year than in recent years. Will producers expand the herd as quickly as they did in the last cattle cycle? The answer is probably not, but predicting what people will do is always a gamble. However, heifer retention will begin to some degree, and the January 1, 2026 Cattle Inventory report may even show a slight increase in the quantity of cattle compared to the previous year. If there is an increase, it will be modest at best as no change in inventory would be an indicator that producers are moving toward expansion instead of continuing the contraction of the past several years. This information remains bullish towards cattle markets. ∆
DR. ANDREW P. GRIFFITH
UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE