Nationally, The Crop Progress Report Estimated Corn Condition At 72 Percent Good-To-Excellent
DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ
KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE
If you have read these comments for the last thirteen years, you will recognize that Dr. Aaron Smith is not writing the comments this week. Moving forward for the time being, I will take over the comments as he takes on a new role within UTIA. I tip my hat to him and his efforts over the years.
Now onto regular programming. This week USDA released some important reports for producers and stakeholders. Firstly, the FSA crop planted acreage report was released this week. Some of the interesting numbers that jumped out were the percentage of prevented acres compared to planted (including failed) acres. The table below highlights the four primary crops for Tennessee. Corn and cotton had 13.6% and 23.7% of the intended planted acres fall into the prevented category. There are several options for producers that had prevented planted acres.
The monthly post WASDE profitability estimates for Tennessee corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat have been updated and are available at: https://arec.tennessee.edu/extension/tennessee-market-highlights/monthly-crop-comments/. The price prospects for the rest of the year and moving into next have limited upside potential due to abundant domestic and global supplies and the prospect of increased South American soybean acres planted this fall. Profitability numbers do not include any government payments that should assist in mitigating losses from last year and potentially this year. I would expect government payments from ARC and PLC to occur again for this crop year (will not be received until October 2026), but having two consecutive years of being in survival mode strains the balance sheets and cash flow for farmers and many will need to begin working with agricultural lenders to secure credit for 2026 earlier than a typical year. Additionally, this week’s futures rallied after the release of these reports providing some hope that a bottom in the market may have been set.
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) remained unchanged or decreased at West, Northwest, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points and weakened at North-Central elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 17 cents under to 29 over, with an average of 2 over the September futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending August 8 was 1.093 million barrels per day, up 12,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 22,.49 million barrels, down 1.107 million barrels compared to last week (trending down for two straight weeks). Corn net sales reported by exporters for August 1-7 were net sales of 3.49 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 80.6 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 24% compared to last week at 59.8 million bushels. Additionally, exports from August 1-7 were up 22% compared to the previous week average. Cash prices ranged from $3.62 to $4.14 at elevators and barge points. September 2025 corn futures closed at $3.84, up 2 cents since last Friday. For the week, September 2025 corn futures traded between $3.69 and $3.86. Sep/Dec and Sep/Mar future spreads were 21 and 39 cents.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 72% good-to-excellent (down 1% from last week) and 7% poor-to-very poor (same as last week); corn silking at 94% compared to 88% last week, 93% last year, and a 5-year average of 95%; corn dough at 58% compared to 42% last week, 58% last year, and a 5-year average of 58%; and corn dented at 14% compared to 16% last year and a 5-year average of 13%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 59% good-to-excellent (down 12% from last week) and 15% poor-to-very poor (up 8% from last week); corn silking at 97% compared to 95% last week, 97% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%; corn dough at 83% compared to 76% last week, 81% last year, and a 5-year average of 81%; and corn dented at 48% compared to 30% last week, 46% last year, and a 5-year average of 39%.This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $3.37 to $3.91 at elevators and barge points. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.05, unchanged since last Friday. March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.23, unchanged since last Friday.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis weakened at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 66 under to 16 over the September futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 16 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 13.87 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 41.6 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 22.5% compared to last week at 19.6 million bushels, but up 26% from the prior 4-week average. Compared to last year, current accumulated export sales are 12.6% higher than for the same period last year. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.46 to $10.28. September 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.22, up 55 cents since last Friday. For the week, September 2025 soybean futures traded between $9.90 and $10.22. The September soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.66 at the end of the week. Sep/Nov and Sep/Jan future spreads were 20 and 39 cents.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 68% good-to-excellent (down 1% from last week) and 7% poor-to-very poor (same as last week); soybeans blooming at 91% compared to 85% last week, 90% last year, and a 5-year average of 92%; and soybeans setting pods at 71% compared to 58% last week, 70% last year, and a 5-year average of 72%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 55% good-to-excellent (down 2% from last week) compared to 16% poor-to-very poor (8% higher than last week); soybeans blooming at 84% compared to 77% last week, 89% last year, and a 5-year average of 88%; and soybeans setting pods at 68% compared to 57% last week, 74% last year, and a 5-year average of 67%. Oct/ Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.48 to $10.18 for the week. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.42, up 55 cents since last Friday. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.57 at the end of the week. January 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.61, also up 55 cents since last Friday.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for August 15 were 64.92 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 69.67 cents/lb (31-3-35). Cotton net weekly sales totaled 242,000 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 21.7% compared to last week at 142,600 bales.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 53% good-to-excellent (down 2% from last week) and 18% poor-to-very poor (up 3% from last week); cotton squaring at 93% compared to 87% last week, 95% last year, and a 5-year average of 94%; cotton setting bolls at 65% compared to 55% last week, 72% last year, and a 5-year average of 71%; and cotton setting bolls opening at 8% compared to 12% last year and a 5- year average of 10%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 48% good-to-excellent (down 13% from last week) and 26% poor-to-very poor (up 15% from last week); cotton squaring at 83% compared to 81% last week, 99% last year, and a 5-year average of 96%; cotton setting bolls at 67% compared to 58% last week, 84% last year, and a 5-year average of 79%; and cotton bolls opening at 1% compared to 4% last year and a 5- year average of 2%. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 67.54 cents, up 0.94 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 cotton futures traded between 66.57 and 68.51 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.53 cents and 2.81 cents. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 69.07 cents, up 1.0 cents since last Friday. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 70.35 cents, up 1.08 cents since last Friday.
Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.53 cents and 2.81 cents. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 69.07 cents, up 1.0 cents since last Friday. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 70.35 cents, up 1.08 cents since last Friday.
Wheat
Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 26.5 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. This makes weekly sales down 2% from the previous week, but up 14% from the prior 4-week average. Exports for the same period were down 49% from the previous week and 37% from the prior 4-week average at 12.52 million bushels. Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat harvested at 90% compared to 86% last week, 92% last year, and a 5-year average of 91%; spring wheat condition at 49% good-to-excellent (up 1% compared to last week) and 18% poor-to-very poor (up 1% compared to last week); spring wheat harvested at 16% compared to 5% last week, 16% last year, and a 5-year average of 22%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.43 to $4.70.
September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.06, down 8 cents since last Friday. September 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.00 and $5.23 this week. Sep/Dec and Sep/Jul future spreads were 21 and 61 cents. The September wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.32. December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.27, down 8 cents since last Friday. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.66, down 10 cents since last Friday. ∆
DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ
KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE