Some Big Price Movements In Soybeans At The End Of The Week
DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ
KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE
This week brought some intra-week movement with the end the week having some higher in the nearby futures for corn, soybeans, and cotton. In corn, comparing this year to next is a copy and paste of the December futures. In soybeans, there were some big price movements at the end of the week with the November contract being $10.58, which is up from this time last year for the November contract which was priced at $9.27. In cotton, prices are similar to the corn futures story, in that there was movement at the end of the week to bring prices to the similar pattern that we saw last year at this time. In wheat, the futures were down compared to the other commodities and when comparing to last year, prices for the July contract are $5.65 which is down compared to this time last year, which had prices at $6.02.
Last week, we highlighted the impact of the WASDE reports and what the implications were. Hopefully, this week can start some movement in a positive way for producers, but prices really need to get going. There were reports of weather potentially having impact on corn states this week, next week will be an indicator of the weather, if any.
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) remained unchanged or increased at West, Northwest, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points and weakened at North-Central elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 6 cents below to 30 over, with an average of 7 over the September futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending August 15 was 1.072 million barrels per day, down 21,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 22,688 million barrels, up 39,000 barrels compared to last week (relatively unchanged from last week). Corn net sales reported by exporters for August 8-14 were net sales reductions of 200,778 bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 112.6 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 32% compared to last week at 40.9 million bushels. Cash prices ranged from $3.73 to $4.13 at elevators and barge points. September 2025 corn futures closed at $3.88, up 4 cents since last Friday. For the week, September 2025 corn futures traded between $3.80 and $3.87. Sep/Dec and Sep/Mar future spreads were 23 and 35 cents.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 71% good-to-excellent (down 1% from last week) and 8% poor -to-very poor (up 1% from last week); corn silking at 97% compared to 94% last week, 97% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%; corn dough at 72% compared to 58% last week, 72% last year, and a 5-year average of 73%; and corn dented at 27% compared to 14% last week, 28% last year and a 5-year average of 26%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 58% good-to -excellent (down 1% from last week) and 14% poor-to-very poor (down 1% from last week); corn silking at 100% compared to 97% last week, 98% last year, and a 5-year average of 99%; corn dough at 87% compared to 83% last week, 87% last year, and a 5-year average of 89%; and corn dented at 66% compared to 48% last week, 62% last year, and a 5-year average of 57%. This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $3.43 to $3.92 at elevators and barge points. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.11, up 6 cents since last Friday. March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.28, up 5 cents since last Friday.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis weaken at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 77 under to 7 under the September futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 31 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales reduction of 209,439 bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 41.9 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 3% compared to last week at 19 million bushels, which is also down 9% from the prior 4-week average. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.58 to $10.21. September 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.36, up 14 cents since last Friday. For the week, September 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.13 and $10.35. The September soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.57 at the end of the week. Sep/Nov and Sep/Jan future spreads were 22 and 41 cents.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 68% good-to-excellent (unchanged from last week) and 8% poor-to-very poor (up 1% from last week); soybeans blooming at 95% compared to 94% last week, 94% last year, and a 5-year average of 95%; and soybeans setting pods at 82% compared to 71% last week, 80% last year, and a 5-year average of 82%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 51% good-to-excellent (down 4% from last week) compared to 19% poor-to- very poor (3% higher than last week); soybeans blooming at 89% compared to 84% last week, 94% last year, and a 5-year average of 93%; and soybeans setting pods at 76% compared to 68% last week, 81% last year, and a 5-year average of 77%. Oct/Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.58 to $10.16 for the week. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.58, up 16 cents since last Friday. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.57 at the end of the week. January 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.77, also up 16 cents since last Friday.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for August 15 were 64.64 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 69.39 cents/lb (31-3-35). Cotton net weekly sales totaled 105,00 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year, which is down 242,000 bales from last week. Exports for the same period were 123,300 which is down compared to last week’s 142,600 bales.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 55% good-to-excellent (up 2% from last week) and 14% poor -to-very poor (down 4% from last week); cotton squaring at 97% compared to 93% last week, 98% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%; cotton setting bolls at 73% compared to 65% last week, 83% last year, and a 5-year average of 80%; and cotton setting bolls opening at 13% compared to 18% last year and a 5- year average of 16%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 47% good-to-excellent (down 1% from last week) and 28% poor-to-very poor (down 2% from last week); cotton squaring at 99% compared to 83% last week, 99% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%; cotton setting bolls at 85% compared to 67% last week, 93% last year, and a 5-year average of 89%; and cotton bolls opening at 2% compared to 7% last year and a 5-year average of 5%. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 68.01 cents, up 0.47 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 cotton futures traded between 65.90 and 69.48 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.73 cents and 1.26 cents. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 69.74 cents, up .67 cents since last Friday. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 71.01 cents, up .66 cents since last Friday.
Wheat
Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 19 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. This makes weekly sales down 28% from the previous week, and down 25% from the prior 4-week average. There were also net sales reductions of 1.4 million bushels for the 2026/27 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 6% from the previous week and down 30% from the prior 4-week average at 13.2 million bushels. Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat harvested at 94% compared to 90% last week, 96% last year, and a 5-year average of 95%; spring wheat condition at 50% good-to-excellent (up 1% compared to last week) and 18% poor-to-very poor (unchanged compared to last week); spring wheat harvested at 36% compared to 16% last week, 29% last year, and a 5-year average of 36%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.38 to $4.62.
September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.04, down 2 cents since last Friday. September 2025 wheat futures traded between $4.94 and $5.11 this week. Sep/Dec and Sep/Jul future spreads were 31 and 61 cents. The September wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.29. December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.27, same as last Friday. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.65, down 1 cent since last Friday. ∆
DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ
UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE