Compared To 2024, 2025 Corn Receipts Are Expected To Fall

DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

A few weeks ago, we discussed the profitability for the rest of the crop marketing having little positivity. This week, the Economic Research Service released their “Farm sector income & finances: Farm sector income forecast” report. Overall net farm income is forecasted to be at $179.8 billion for 2025, which is an $52 billion increase compared to 2024. The increase is based on the livestock sector. On the crop side, combined receipts for corn, soybeans and wheat are forecasted to decrease $6.8 billion in total compared to 2024. Compared to 2024, 2025 corn receipts are expected to fall by $2.3 billion (3.7%) due to lower prices. Soybean receipts are forecasted to decrease by $3.4 billion (7.2%) compared to 2024. Wheat receipts are forecast to fall $1.1 billion (9.8%), due to lower prices and quantities sold. The only relative positive outcome is in the cotton sector, with receipts expected to remain near 2024 levels. 

A pivotal reason why row crop producers have been sustainable following last year’s commodity prices and the forecasted hard times ahead for profitability, is government payments. Direct Government farm program payments are forecast at $40.5 billion for 2025, a $30.4 billion increase from the $10.1 billion total for 2024. Farm bill payments that are a function of commodity prices are forecasted to be at $550.4 million for 2025, largely unchanged from 2024. Payments under the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) are forecasted to decrease, while payments from the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program are forecast to increase relative to 2024. In Tennessee, direct government payments in 2024 was $160,148,000, which was an 18.7% increase from the previous year. This increase was due to an increase in supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance payments.

In 2024, Tennessee’s net cash farm income was $1.3 billion which was up from $1.45 billion in Tennessee. Crop receipts were down 17.6% in 2024 compared to 2023. I expect crop receipts to be lower this year given the profitability discussion from a few weeks ago, the question is by how much. The answer to that is dependent on if the recent flooring of prices is a true floor, which there are signs that they are. 

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) weakened slightly or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 5 cents under to 8 cents over, with an average of 1 cent under the September futures at elevators and barge points. This week’s basis average is higher than last week. Ethanol production for the week ending August 22 was 1.075 million barrels per day, up 5,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 22,564 million barrels, up 15,000 barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for August 22-28 were net sales reductions of 11.1 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year (marketing year low) and the 2025/26 marketing year had net sales of 83.3 million bushels (up 1 million bushels compared to last week). Exports for the same period were up 52% compared to last week and up 41% from the previous 4-week average at 68.6 million bushels. Cash prices ranged from $3.93 to $4.11 at elevators and barge points. September 2025 corn futures closed at $3.99, up 1 cent since last Friday. For the week, September 2025 corn futures traded between $3.93 and $4.05. Sep/Dec and Sep/Mar future spreads were 19 and 38 cents. 

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 69% good-to-excellent (down 2% from last week) and 9% poor-to-very poor (up 1% from last week); corn dough at 90% compared to 83% last week, 89% last year, and a 5-year average of 91%; corn dented at 58% compared to 44% last week, 58% last year and a 5-year average of 60%; and corn mature at 15% compared to 7% last week, 18% last year and a 5-year average of 14%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 54% good-to-excellent (down 3% from last week) and 16% poor-to-very poor (up 2% from last week); corn dough at 98% compared to 95% last week, 98% last year, and a 5-year average of 97%; corn dented at 91% compared to 81% last week, 87% last year, and a 5- year average of 84%; and corn mature at 60% compared to 36% last week, 56% last year and a 5-year average of 37%. This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $3.68 to $4.48 at elevators and barge points. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.18, down 2 cents since last Friday. March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.36, down 1 cent since last Friday. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis slightly strengthened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 53 under to 3 under the September futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 24 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters had net sales reduction of 874,500 bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and net sales of 30.1 million bushels (down 20.4 million bushels from last week) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 12% compared to last week at 16.8 million bushels, which is also down 13% from the prior 4-week average. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.60 to $10.13. September 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.06, down 30 cents since last Friday. For the week, September 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.08 and $10.37. The September soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.52 at the end of the week. Sep/Nov and Sep/Jan future spreads were 21 and 39 cents. 

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 65% good-to-excellent (down 4% from last week) and 10% poor-to-very poor (up 2% from last week); soybeans setting pods at 94% compared to 89% last week, 93% last year, and a 5-year average of 94%; and soybeans dropping leaves at 11% compared to 4% last week, 12% last year, and a 5-year average of 10%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 42% good-to-excellent (down 7% from last week) compared to 25% poor-to-very poor (up 6% from last week); and soybeans dropping leaves at 26% compared to 10% last week, 12% last year, and a 5-year average of 10%. Oct/Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.61 to $10.13 for the week. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.27, down 27 cents since last Friday. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.46 at the end of the week. January 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.45, down 27 cents since last Friday. 

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for September 5th were down to 63.44 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 68.19 cents/lb (31-3- 35). Cotton net weekly sales totaled 245,000 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year, which is up 65,700 bales from last week. Exports for the same period were 154,700 bales which is up 42,000 bales compared to last week. 

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 51% good-to-excellent (down 3% from last week) and 13% poor-to-very poor (unchanged from last week); cotton setting bolls at 90% compared to 81% last week, 94% last year, and a 5- year average of 93%; and cotton bolls opening at 28% compared to 20% last week, 35% last year and a 5- year average of 30%. 

In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 38% good-to-excellent (down 10% from last week) and 29% poor-to-very poor (up 17% from last week); cotton setting bolls at 95% compared to 91% last week, 99% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%; and cotton bolls opening at 32% compared to 20% last week, 35% last year and a 5-year average of 17%. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 66.03 cents, down .51 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 cotton futures traded between 66.02 and 66.09 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.93 cents and 3.31 cents. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 67.96 cents, down .44 cents since last Friday. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 69.34 cents, down .45 cents since last Friday.

Wheat 

Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 11.5 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year, and 202,090 bushels for the 2026/27 marketing year. This makes weekly sales down 46% from the previous week, and down 51% from the prior 4-week average. Exports for the same period were down 11% from the previous week at 32.8 million bushels. Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat harvested at 72% compared to 53% last week, 67% last year, and a 5-year average of 71%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.64 to $5.30, which are increases from last week’s range of $4.42 to $4.74. 

September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.01, down 17 cents since last Friday. September 2025 wheat futures traded between $4.95 and $5.18 this week. Sep/Dec and Sep/Jul future spreads were 18 and 54 cents. The September wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.26. December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.19, 7 cents lower than last Friday. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.55, down 16 cents since last Friday.   ∆

DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ

UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE