Market Conditions Raise Big Questions For 2026
US RICE PRODUCERS
KATY, TEXAS
The WASDE report from September is particularly prescient, as it codifies what all the rumors have been–things are not good. So poor, in fact, that there is already discussion about significant acreage reduction next year if something doesn’t change. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins even floated this week the possibility of tariff income being used to bail out U.S. farmers. The secret is out, and the situation is bleak.
The September WASDE outlook for 2025/26 U.S. rice is a quadruple gut-punch: larger supplies, lower exports, reduced domestic use, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher beginning stocks, imports, and production. Beginning stocks are raised 3.4 million cwt to 53.9 million cwt. Total rough rice stocks on August 1 were up 35% from the prior year to the largest stocks since 1987. The all-rice production forecast is raised by 0.3 million cwt to 208.8 million, on higher harvested area partially offset by a lower yield, as indicated by the NASS September Crop Production report. Total exports are lowered 3.0 million cwt to 94.0 million (all long-grain) on uncompetitive prices and a slow pace of sales so far in the marketing year. As a result of these changes, all rice ending stocks are projected to increase significantly to 53.4 million cwt, 8.7 million higher than last month’s forecast. The 2025/26 all rice season-average farm price is projected at $13.20 per cwt, down $1.00 from last month, with reductions to prices for all rice classes.
The 2025/26 global rice outlook this month is for increased supplies, trade, consumption, and stocks. World supplies increased 0.8 million tons to a record 729.5 million, as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. Global rice consumption has risen slightly, up 0.2 million tons to 542.2 million. Projected 2025/26 world ending stocks are 187.3 million tons, up 0.6 million tons primarily due to increases for Pakistan and the United States.
The chart below shows the steady decline of prices, with the U.S. still being the highest. While this chart shows prices now dropping below $600 pmt, actual reports from the industry and recent quotes support a price closer to $575 pmt, a dreary price indeed. Cash and future prices are also lagging, with intrusion from South American suppliers leading the bear-market tone.
The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 8,400 MT this week, down 43% from the previous week and 80% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 59,200 MT were up 64% from the previous week and 41% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primary to South Korea (24,400 MT), Haiti (13,500 MT), Honduras (10,300 MT), Mexico (4,500 MT), and Canada (2,700 MT). ∆
US RICE PRODUCERS