U.S. Export Market Full Of Challenges

US RICE PRODUCERS

KATY, TEXAS

Harvest continues to move on without much of a problem, with Arkansas now on the downhill side, approaching 80% complete. Louisiana is over 95%, as is Texas. Mississippi is at 73%, and Missouri is at 60%. California, as always, is the last to harvest but is in full swing, now approaching 30%. Milling yields from Louisiana to Arkansas are being reported as average, i.e.: 55/70. There was some hope early that we would see a significant increase, but as more of the crop is moving, it seems to be averaging out overall. The real trick will be selling all of it into a market that is flooded with cheap rice from Asia/India, and increased competition from South America.

 recent GAIN report on Mexico shows increasing demand for rice in the country, which will likely result in both increased production (4%) and imports (2%). The production increase equates to 637,000 planted acres, but still remains 7% below the 10-year average. When evaluating the increased imports, the expectation is that it will largely come in the form of paddy, and we all can hope that U.S. long grain gets the lion's share with increased milling yields. Mexico’s local production accounts for only 20% of their demand, so they are heavily reliant on stable trade partners.

 As for the actual numbers of U.S. imports in the last year, the numbers aren’t positive. From October 2024-July 2025, imports reached 759,038 MT, with paddy accounting for 75% and milled rice for 25%. During this time period, U.S. market share declined from 80% to 57%, primarily in paddy rice. In direct contrast, Uruguay expanded its share from 5% to 20%, and Brazil increased from 0.1% to 11%. The good news is that Thai milled rice dropped from 13% to 6%. Drilling further into the paddy market over the last year, the U.S. now accounts for 65%, Uruguay 18%, Brazil 11%, and Paraguay at 6%. Post states that as of June 2025, paddy prices have dropped 19% down to $367/mt. There will be stiff competition for this important market in the coming 12 months now that our new crop is available.

 In Asia, prices are still hovering where they have for weeks. Thailand is quoted at $365 pmt, whereas Vietnam is still at $385 pmt, and India at $380 pmt. India, the key bear driver to the global rice market, still has an astounding supply. To put some numbers to the often ethereal volume, the country is still holding between 55-60 million metric tons in stocks. To put that in perspective, the United States produces between 7-8 million metric tons each year, meaning what they are holding in stocks is over eight times our annual production. It’s an ominous weight hanging over the market indeed.

 The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 8,300 MT this week, unchanged from last week, but down 78% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 40,500 MT were down 32% percent from the previous week, but only 1% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Haiti (14,200 MT), Saudi Arabia (9,400 MT), El Salvador (5,600 MT), Mexico (4,800 MT), and Canada (3,300 MT).  ∆

US RICE PRODUCERS

 

 

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