March 2026 Corn Futures Closed Down 3 Cents Since Last Friday
DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ
KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE
This week brought many headliners in the news. A new New World Screwworm case surfaced only 70 miles south of the Texas border. The news solidified a continuation of no feeder cattle coming into the US for the time being. The continuation means less cattle to feed, especially in Texas, which impacts demand for feed grains. For the time being, there will be no cattle coming in from Mexico, but if something was to change, this could cause a jump in prices not only in local markets where feeding occurs, but across the boards.
In other major news, on Monday, Argentina's government temporarily eliminated export taxes on grains and their by-products, as well as on beef and poultry. The move suspended export taxes on soy, corn, wheat and their by-products, including biodiesel. Originally, it was to last through the end of October, or until declared exports reach $7 billion. The tax burdens for exports were taken to zero from a prior level of 26% on soybeans, 24.5% on soybean oil and meal and 9.5% on corn. This $7 billion threshold was met by Thursday morning, with China being a major buyer of products, most notably feed grains, such as soybeans. From a macro view, this move helped Argentina capture much needed capital in order to strengthen their peso. But, given the buyer, the boards reacted with slides on Thursday and Friday. This signals 1) China was willing to buy from somewhere other than Brazil, but 2) the US’ largest soybean buyer, again, bought product elsewhere besides the US. The question becomes, “how much more does China need?”, and have we missed the chance. On the flip side, by China buying from Brazil and Argentina, this should fundamentally free up Brazil’s and Argentina’s normal trade partners, such that possibly, the US can supply the demand. This depends on trade agreements, and remaining supply in Brazil and Argentina. If there is a chance to move US product, many hope that it happens sooner rather than later.
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) weakened at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 35 cents under to 6 cents under, with an average of 19 cents under with the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending September 19 was 1.024 million barrels per day, down 31,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 23.47 million barrels, up 866,000 barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for September 12- 18 were 75.7 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year (up 27.2 million bushels compared to last week). Exports for the period was 51.8 million bushels. Cash prices ranged from $3.87 to $4.27 at elevators and barge points. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.22, which is down 2 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 corn futures traded between $4.18 and $4.28.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 66% good-to-excellent (down 1% from last week) and 10% poor-to-very poor (up 1% from last week); corn dented at 91% compared to 85% last week, 91% last year and a 5-year average of 93%; corn mature at 56% compared to 41% last week, 59% last year and a 5-year average of 59%; and corn harvested at 11% compared to 7% last week, 13% last year and a 5-year average of 11%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 52% good-to-excellent (down 1% from last week) and 17% poor-to-very poor (up 1% from last week); corn dented at 98% com- pared to 97% last week, 99% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%; corn mature at 91% compared to 86% last week, 91% last year and a 5-year average of 84%; and corn harvested at 61% compared to 48% last week, 56% last year and a 5-year average of 38%. This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $3.82 to $4.56 at elevators and barge points. March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.38, down 3 cents since last Friday.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis slightly strengthened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 67 under to 13 under the September futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 36 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters had net sales of 26.2 million bushels for 2025/2026 marketing year. Exports for the period ending September 18 was 18.8 million bushels. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.45 to $9.92. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.13, down 12 cents since last Friday. For the week, November 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.05 and $10.25.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 61% good-to-excellent (down 2% from last week) and 12% poor-to-very poor (up 1% from last week); soybeans dropping leaves at 61% compared to 41% last week, 62% last year, and a 5-year average of 60%; and soybeans harvested at 9% compared to 5% last week, 12% last year, and a 5-year average of 9%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 37% good-to-excellent (unchanged from last week) compared to 26% poor-to-very poor (down 1% from last week); soybeans dropping leaves at 66% compared to 54% last week, 68% last year, and a 5-year average of 50%; and soybeans harvested at 25% compared to 17% last week, 31% last year, and a 5-year average of 14%. Oct/Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.45 to $9.92 for the week. January 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.33, down 11 cents since last Friday. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.40 at the end of the week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for September 26th were up to 64.28 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 69.03 cents/lb (31-3- 35). Cotton net weekly sales totaled 86,100 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year, which was down 54% from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 137,200 bales which was 16,700 higher than the previous week.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 47% good-to-excellent (down 5% from last week) and 18% poor-to-very poor (up 4% from last week); cotton bolls opening at 60% compared to 50% last week, 62% last year and a 5- year average of 59%; and harvested at 12% compared to 9% last week, 13% last year, and a 5-year average of 12%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 31% good-to-excellent (down 3% from last week) and 39% poor-to-very poor (up 5% from last week); cotton bolls opening at 77% compared to 66% last week, 76% last year and a 5-year average of 52%; and harvested at 2% compared to 1% last week, 3% last year, and a 5-year average of 2%. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 66.40 cents, up 11 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 cotton futures traded between 66.03 to 67.02 cents. Dec/ Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.86 cents and 3.13 cents. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 68.26 cents, down .02 cents since last Friday. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 69.58 cents, down .08 cents since last Friday.
Wheat
Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 19.8 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year (up 43% from the previous week and 37% from the prior 4-week average). Exports for the same period were up from the previous week at 32.9 million bushels (up 16% from the previous week and 18% from the prior 4-week average). Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat harvested at 96% compared to 94% last week, 95% last year, and a 5-year average of 96%; and winter wheat planted at 20% compared to 11% last week, 23% last year, and a 5-year average of 23%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.55 to $4.72.
December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.19, down 3 cents since last Friday. December 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.07 and $5.27 this week. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.60, down 2 cents since than last Friday. ∆
DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ
UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE