Four Pressures Facing U.S. Agriculture
Randy P. Krotz
CEO AgWiki, Inc.
American agriculture rarely moves in a straight line, and the fall of 2025 is proving no exception. Farmers, ranchers, policymakers, and consumers are all feeling the ripple effects of economic, animal health, and regulatory developments. Four issues in particular—an expected downturn in the crop sector, a troubling animal health case near the border, proposed changes to nutrition program rules, and the weight of tariffs—are shaping the current landscape.
A Looming Recession in the Crop Sector
Farm economists have been sounding the alarm that the crop sector may be sliding toward recession. After several years of strong commodity prices fueled by global demand and weather volatility, the tide is shifting. Lower export volumes, higher input costs, and steady declines in farmland values in some regions are squeezing growers. Corn and soybean producers in particular face narrowing margins, with break-even prices uncomfortably close to cash market levels. If credit becomes tighter and interest rates remain elevated, many smaller operations may struggle to finance the 2026 planting season. While not every farmer will feel the downturn equally, the sense of unease is spreading across the Midwest and Delta.
New World Screwworm Emerges Near the Border
Adding to the list of challenges is a confirmed case of New World screwworm, a parasitic fly that infests livestock and wildlife. The discovery just south of the U.S.–Mexico border has animal health officials on high alert. The pest, once eradicated from the United States through an intensive sterile fly release program decades ago, can cause devastating losses if it were to re-establish itself. USDA and border agencies are stepping up surveillance, coordinating with Mexican authorities, and preparing contingency plans. Ranchers in Texas and New Mexico are closely watching, as even a limited outbreak could trigger quarantines, increase veterinary costs, and disrupt the already delicate cattle market.
USDA’s SNAP Proposal Sparks Debate
While farmers worry about markets, grocers and consumers are focused on policy. USDA recently proposed changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) that would tighten stocking requirements for retailers who accept SNAP benefits. The agency aims to increase households' access to a broader range of staple foods, including a greater variety of fruits, vegetables, proteins, and whole grains. Critics argue the new rules could overburden small rural stores, many of which already struggle to keep shelves full. Supporters counter that strengthening nutritional standards is long overdue, especially given the rising rates of food insecurity and diet-related disease. The debate underscores the tension between public health goals and rural retail realities.
The Lingering Impact of Tariffs
Ultimately, U.S. farmers continue to grapple with the repercussions of global trade disputes. Tariffs—whether retaliatory measures from China or new barriers in other markets—continue to be a drag on export competitiveness. Soybeans, pork, and dairy have all faced headwinds abroad, prompting a greater reliance on domestic markets. While some producers have benefited from government relief payments or found alternative buyers, long-term damage to trading relationships is harder to measure. Tariffs also raise input costs when applied to imported fertilizer, machinery, or steel, compounding the financial strain at the farm gate. For producers already worried about declining margins, trade policy uncertainty is yet another variable they cannot control.
Looking Ahead
Taken together, these issues highlight the complexity of modern agriculture. A looming economic downturn, the resurgence of an old livestock threat, shifting nutrition policies, and the impact of global tariffs all converge to test the flexibility of America’s farmers and ranchers. The sector has weathered storms before, but the months ahead will require attentiveness, adaptability, and strong policy coordination to ensure agriculture continues to thrive.
Randy P. Krotz
CEO AgWiki, Inc.