Uncertainty Growing Among U.S. Rice Farmers
US RICE PRODUCERS
KATY, TEXAS
The October FAO Rice Price Update registered another decrease this month in their All Rice Price Index. Sitting now at 100.9 and 0.5% below last month, it is now 24.2% lower than this time last year and the lowest since December 2021. The overall drop of only 0.5% for the index was tempered by small increases in Aromatic and Glutinous prices due to regional tightness of supply, while Indica and Glutinous varieties both dropped. The report noted that in the Americas, prices of U.S. #2/4% remained on a steady downtrend as harvest progressed. Trade has been quiet and there are challenges finding markets for the large carryover from last year. Likewise, MERCOSUR quotations continued to ease, weighed by bumper 2025/26 harvests.
With no USDA reports to track crop progress or export data due to the government shutdown, we can say with confidence that harvest is all but finished in the south, and about 50% complete in California. As for news on the harvest on the West Coast, initial reports are showing exceptionally high field yields (ranging from 5-10% above average), but average to low qualities. Milling yields are still TBD as little new crop rice has been milled out, but more information to follow.
The U.S. market is unfortunately seeing an outsized impact from India’s supplies, as the global rice complex is depressed in both hemispheres. While there are steady millings of U.S. product being sent to Haiti and Iraq, prices continue to decline in tandem with our far-east and near-east counterparts. Most concerning to the U.S., however, is the intrusion of rice from Uruguay and Brazil into our sacred paddy markets. Both South American origins are offering what the market is calling a superior produce at cheaper prices – a definite warning signal to the U.S. rice producer. There is no doubt that rice farmers and the U.S. rice industry are at a crossroads and we are witnessing a major shift in dynamics.
This warning is being taken to heart, as there is significant discussion on the ground about world market price factors and supply side economics; i.e., is it worth not planting at all and hope for some sort of government declaration on global oversupply. Times are desperate, and therefore potential solutions are getting more extreme. To make matters worse, the rice delphacid aphid is like a death-punch to the supply side of the equation, impeding what producers are best at – growing a crop.
Prices in Asia saw yet another week of weakening, due to both strong supply and weak demand from Indonesia and the Philippines. Thai prices are now quoted at $340 pmt, down 33% from last year. Viet prices are quoted at $380 pmt, down 31%. India is quoted at $370, and there are no YoY changes to calculate because of their export ban. Prices in the Western Hemisphere are softening as well, with the U.S. leading at $575 pmt, followed by Brazil at $520 pmt, and then Uruguay at $490 pmt. ∆
US RICE PRODUCERS