Plenty Challenges Ahead For Farmers
US RICE PRODUCERS
KATY, TEXAS
Another week into the shutdown, and the only good news is that the USDA has allowed two employees per office to help administer CCC loans and other emergency payments to producers. More on that in the Washington, DC Update below. Amid the gridlock, the 1980’s style plight of farmers has made its way to the halls of DC, and they did something about it. Now if we could only implement blanket tariffs with USTR to mitigate the influx of cheap imports, perhaps we could progress towards a market-driven solution. In the meantime, the outlook remains bleak.
Outside of ratoon crops in the south and the last 15% in California, harvest is finished. Milling reports are starting to come in across all states, and it’s not great news. Where many were hoping to see increases over last year, it’s looking like average at best, but most states reporting 50-51 lb. head rice and milling yields. This is coming from surveys largely in Louisiana and Arkansas but is expected to span across the balance of the southern states.
Overall yields are reported off as well. Surveys indicate Louisiana was highly volatile based on location, with southern Louisiana fairing much better than the northern portion of the state since it held yields similar to last year. Arkansas, however, was reported down across the board by at least 5%. Missouri and Mississippi are both looking to be down at least 10% on yields, and Texas was truly devastated because of the Delphacid crisis.
Layering these low yields and poor milling quality into the overall landscape further punctuates the uphill battle. Brazil’s bumper crop last year (arguably boosted by strong subsidies) has allowed them to be extremely competitive in pricing. Their gain in the South and Central American markets has been our loss, specifically in rough rice exports. Up to the government shutdown, long grain rough rice exports have dropped 49% from the same time last year, down to 205.7 TMT from 404.1 TMT. Long grain milled has dropped 12%, where medium grain milled has dropped 5%.
In Asia, producers aren’t fairing much better. Thailand is fighting a market that has dropped nearly 25% in the last year, now down to $340 pmt. Vietnam has seen a distinct firmness in its price compared to Thailand, now registering prices at $375 pmt. India, ever the culprit for the supply gut, is reported closer to $365 pmt. When looking at global supplies, the total projected stocks for 2025/26 is 187 MMT, of which 104.5 MMT is in China (56%), and 45.5 MMT is in India (24%). This leaves the rest of the world with 37 MMT of stocks, or about 20%. ∆
US RICE PRODUCERS