This Week’s Comments Are Void Of Crop Progress, And Trade Data Due To Continued Shutdown

DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

The government shut down has continued and due to the shutdown this week’s comments are void of crop progress, and trade data. Thus, movement of prices is based on local and futures markets. Last Friday morning, prices took a tailspin down following reports of trade tensions between the US and China. Today, the tone is quite the opposite. On
Friday morning, President Trump reinforced a meeting was set with Chinese President Xi Jinping in two weeks in South Korea. Following the morning news report, grain market futures prices all increased to weekly highs. This was a much welcomed site, but uncertainty of will remain surrounding the coming months until a meeting between the US and China occurs. 

Given that we still don’t have our normal weekly reports, and because there have been some questions about storage usage, I decided that this week I would analyze the interest cost for corn vs soybeans, for storage considerations. I specifically analyzed spread and interest costs for the nearby and the May contracts for each commodity. At an interest rate of 8%, monthly interest cost is currently 2.9 cents per bushel for corn, and 6.8 cents per bushel for. When future prices are basis adjusted, the corn May contract price spread is $0.28/bu, while the soybean May contract spread is $0.62/bu. For corn, the May interest cost is currently $0.21 (7 months * 2.9 cents). For soybeans, the May interest cost is currently $0.41 (6 months * 6.8 cents). The difference between the spread and interest cost is approximately $0.07/ bu and $0.21/bu, for corn and soybeans, respectively. Given the current differences, if one was to be deciding what to store in order to market grain in May, soybeans ($0.14/bu higher) would be the preferred choice. It’s important to note that storage isn’t risk free, and that there is risk of spoilage and price decreases while the grain is in storage. 

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened (second week in a row) from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 35 cents under to 16 cents over, with an average of 6 cents under with the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending October 10 was 1.074 million barrels, up 3,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 22.63 million barrels, down 92,000 barrels compared to last week. Cash prices ranged from $3.78 to $4.47 at elevators and barge points. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.22, which is down 9 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 corn futures traded between $4.09 and $4.24. 

This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $3.78 to $4.52 at elevators and barge points. March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.36, up 7 cents since last Friday. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened compared to last week (second week in a row) at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 41 under to 8 over the November futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 7 cents under. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.71 to $10.22. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.19, up 13 cents since last Friday. For the week, November 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.01 and $10.21. 

Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.70 to $10.26 for the week. January 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.36, up 13 cents since last Friday. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.41 at the end of the week. 

Cotton 

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for October 16th were down to 61.23 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 65.98 cents/lb (31-3- 35). 

December 2025 cotton futures closed at 64.28 cents, up .44 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 cotton futures traded between 62.71 to 64.5 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.5 cents and 2.69 cents. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 65.78 cents, up .18 cents since last Friday. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 66.97 cents, up .08 cents since last Friday. 

Wheat 

Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.44 to $4.48. 

December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.03, up 5 cents since last Friday. December 2025 wheat futures traded between $4.92 and $5.03 this week. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.41, up 2 cents since than last Friday.   ∆

DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ

UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE