Corn Price Increases In Both The Cash And Futures Markets

DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

The government shut down has continued and due to the shutdown this week’s comments are void of crop progress, and trade data. Thus, movement in prices is based on local and futures markets. 

There is still positive signs with regard to President Trump meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week in South Korea. Because we don’t have USDA progress or WASDE reports, we don’t know what is our national supply, but the opportunity to have new demand for US crops, is positive, which impacted the market this week. The market seems to have confidence in this meeting given the massive jumps this week in soybean futures. 

Additionally, Ethanol production (1.112 million barrels) for the week of October 17, was the highest since the first week of June, which also led to corn price increases in both the cash and futures markets. This means production has increased for 3 straight weeks. Next week’s report could have impact on markets if there is another weekly increase. 

One other news item to watch next week is with regard to livestock. Next week, Mexico’s Sectary of Agriculture is set to meet with the US Sectary of Agriculture regarding the possibility of opening back up the Southern border for livestock trade. If the border does open back up, then we could see feeder cattle being placed in feedyards, which will increase demand for feedstuffs. The questions will be: how many head, what size will the animals be, and how soon can they be placed? Regardless, I would expect futures market movement for grains to pick up if there is any sign of Mexican cattle possibly coming. 

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) remained relatively the same from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 35 cents under to 18 cents over, with an average of 6 cents under with the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending October 17 was 1.112 million barrels, up 38,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 21.919 million barrels, down 709,000 barrels compared to last week. Cash prices ranged from $3.85 to $4.48 at elevators and barge points. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.23, which is up 1 cent since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 corn futures traded between $4.18 and $4.28. 

This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $3.85 to $4.53 at elevators and barge points. March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.37, up 1 cent since last Friday. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis weakened compared to last week (second week in a row) at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 57 under to 13 over the November futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 9 cents under. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.95 to $10.60. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.41, up 22 cents since last Friday. For the week, November 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.19 and $10.45. 

Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.95 to $10.60 for the week. January 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.60, up 24 cents since last Friday. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.46 at the end of the week. 

Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for October 23rd were up to 61.57 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 66.32 cents/lb (31-3-35). 

December 2025 cotton futures closed at 64.20 cents, down .08 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 cotton futures traded between 63.65 to 64.78 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.51 cents and 2.75 cents. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 65.71 cents, down .07 cents since last Friday. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 66.95 cents, down .02 cents since last Friday. 

Wheat 

Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.45 to $4.58. 

December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.12, up 9 cents since last Friday. December 2025 wheat futures traded between $4.98 and $5.15 this week. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.50, up 9 cents since than last Friday.  ∆

DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ

UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE