The Markets Responded Positively To The News Of China Buying More Soybeans

DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

The government shut down has continued and due to the shutdown this week’s comments are void of crop progress, and trade data. Thus, movement in prices is based on local and futures markets. 

This week was highly anticipated in the agricultural sector as President Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, on Wednesday. On Wednesday morning, reports surfaced that China had purchased approximately 180,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans ahead of the meeting. Following the meeting, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that China has committed to purchasing 25-million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually starting in 2026. Additionally, China will buy 12 million metric tons before the end of this year. The market responded positively to the news, with gains seen across all soybean futures contracts. Notably, the nearby contract surpassed $11 per bushel for the first time since July of last year. Today’s closing is also the highest closing price since July 2024. While the November contract trended upward throughout the week, it has hovered around $10.90/bu. One reason the market hasn't sustained levels above $11/bu may be that the promised annual purchase volume aligns closely with China's historical buying patterns. Furthermore, traders may be waiting for confirmation that the grain is physically enroute to China before fully pricing in the news. Nonetheless, this upward movement is a welcome development for the market. I believe there is still unmet demand globally, particularly from buyers left behind when Argentina and Brazil shipped soybeans to China last month. 

One other news item of note, the fed reserve lowered interest rates, to the lowest rates in a couple of years. In the short run, this could be helpful for producers that are working on their operating capital next year. 

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 35 cents under to 25 cents over, with an average of 1 cent under with the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending October 24 was 1.091 million barrels, down 21,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 22.367 million barrels, up 448,000 barrels compared to last week. Cash prices ranged from $3.94 to $4.59 at elevators and barge points. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.31, which is up 8 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 corn futures traded between $4.26 and $4.37This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $3.94 to $4.59 at elevators and barge points. March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.44, up 7 cents since last Friday. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened compared to last week (second week in a row) at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 54 under to 22 over the November futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 2 cents under. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.35 to $11.14. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.99, up 58 cents since last Friday. For the week, November 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.52 and $11.01. 

Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $10.36 to $11.14 for the week. January 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.15, up 55 cents since last Friday. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.55 at the end of the week. 

Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for October 30th were up to 62.62 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 67.37 cents/lb (31-3-35). 

December 2025 cotton futures closed at 65.54 cents, up 1.34 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 cotton futures traded between 64.34 to 66.10 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.19 cents and 2.36 cents. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 66.73 cents, up 1.02 cents since last Friday. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 67.9 cents, up 0.95 cents since last Friday. 

Wheat

Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $3.94 to $4.59. 

December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.34, up 22 cents since last Friday. December 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.16 and $5.35 this week. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.67, up 17 cents since than last Friday.   ∆

DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ

UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE