2025/26 U.S. Corn Outlook Is For Greater Exports And Lower Ending Stocks
DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ
KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE
This week we got numerous reports from various USDA entities. I’ve taken each one and documented the highlights that I felt was most important. I will dive further into the WASDE implications next week.
The movement that we saw this week was no doubt influenced by the reports and the market responded. With the amount of information that hit the market, the downward swing and volatility between this week and last week, was expected. Depending on one’s situation, some contracts throughout the board might still offer some opportunity to secure a floor.
Additionally, this week saw a lowering of interests rate and an announcement of $12 billion (Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program) towards aid for crop producers in the coming months, both of which are positives from a financial standpoint. With regard to the ad hoc FBA government program, its key that producers get with their local FSA office to make sure acreage counts are accurate, as it seems that the program will be based upon FSA acreage counts.
WASDE-
Corn: This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for greater exports and lower ending stocks. Exports are raised 125 million bushels to 3.2 billion reflecting shipments to date. Export inspection data showed robust foreign demand during November and implies total shipments during the September-November quarter will likely exceed 800 million bushels, surpassing the prior high set during 2007. With no supply changes and use rising, corn ending stocks are down 125 million bushels to 2.0 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.00 per bushel.
Wheat: All of the supply and use categories for 2025/26 U.S. wheat are unchanged this month. However, there are offsetting by-class revisions for both feed and residual use and exports. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price remains at $5.00 per bushel.
This month’s 2025/26 global wheat outlook is for higher supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 7.5 million tons to 1,097.8 million on larger production from several major exporting countries. Canada is raised 3.0 million tons to a record 40.0 million on the final 2025/26 production forecast from Statistics Canada. Argentina is increased 2.0 million tons to a record 24.0 million on widespread favorable conditions throughout the growing season, especially in Buenos Aires, the largest wheat producing region. The EU is raised 1.7 million tons to 144.0 million on updated official government statistics for several countries. Both Australia and Russia are increased 1.0 million tons to 37.0 and 87.5 million, respectively. Global 2025/26 consumption is raised 4.1 million tons to 823.0 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for several of the aforementioned countries. World trade is 1.5 million tons higher at 218.7 million on greater exports for Australia, Canada, and Argentina more than offsetting reductions for Turkey and Ukraine. Projected 2025/26 global ending stocks are raised 3.4 million tons to 274.9 million, mainly on increases for several exporting countries.
Cotton: This month’s 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet shows slightly higher production, a reduction in mill use, and larger ending stocks compared to November. Beginning stocks, exports, and imports are unchanged. Production is increased 1 percent to 14.3 million bales as yields are raised for most States in the Southeast and Delta. As a result, the national average yield is 10 pounds higher at 929 pounds per acre.
Cotton: World Markets and Trade- Bangladesh imported 8.05 million bales of cotton in marketing year 2024/2025, which made it the global cotton import leader. Second for the same marketing year was Vietnam (7.95 million bales), and China was third (5.19 million bales). The United States only captured 7% of the price-sensitive Bangladesh cotton import market in 2024/25, despite covering 28% of global cotton trade. U.S. cotton is less competitive in Bangladesh due to higher cost and longer transit time from U.S. warehouses compared to other origins that are warehoused in Asia or sold while in transit. African countries accounted for 41% of exports to Bangladesh in 2024/25, led by Benin, Cameroon, Burkina Faso, and Mali. Brazil captured 25% market share and India accounted for 15%.
Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade- Argentina soybean exports in 2025/26 (October – September) are forecast at 8.3 million tons, the highest in 6 years, driven in part by several adjustments to export taxes in the past year. The most impactful was September’s temporary elimination of export taxes on several agricultural products, removing the 26% soy and 24.5% soybean meal and soybean oil taxes until the end of October, or until export sales declarations for all affected products reached a $7 billion cap. This cap was reached in only 3 days and resulted in over 3.0 million additional tons of soybean export sales registered for Argentina’s 2024/25 local year (April 2025 – March 2026). Most of these sales were registered for delivery between October and December 2025. The projected U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is unchanged at $10.50 per bushel.
Over the last month, soybean export prices have been range bound, consolidating gains seen after China resumed purchases of U.S. soybeans. The spread between Brazil and U.S. soybeans has remained narrow as demand from China, strong U.S. crushing demand, and a weakening U.S. dollar provide support for U.S. soybean prices. Better crush margins in China for Brazilian soybeans and shrinking soybean stocks have supported Brazilian prices over this time. sliding U.S. dollar in recent weeks has helped narrow the U.S. premium over meal of South American origin. A record export total for Argentina soybeans in November and continued shipments from Brazil continue to drawdown South American soybean stocks, providing support for soybean meal prices of major exporters.
Crop Production- All cotton production is forecast at 14.3 million 480-pound bales, up 1% from the previous forecast but down 1% from 2024. Based on conditions as of December 1, yields are expected to average 929 pounds per harvested acre, up 10 pounds from the previous forecast and up 43 pounds from 2024. Upland cotton production is forecast at 13.9 million 480- pound bales, up 1% from the previous forecast but down less than 1% from 2024.
-Tennessee had an estimated 190,000 acres harvested with yield of 1,440 pounds per acre (up from 1,213 pounds per acre estimated in November), which generated 570,000 bales in 2025. Record high yields are forecast for all cotton in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Tennessee.
Wheat Outlook: December 2025- Global wheat production is surging in 2025/26 with record production forecast for several key producers, including Canada and Argentina. The European Union is forecasted to have production at a 10-year high, while Kazakhstan is forecasted at a 14-year high. The world’s largest producer, Russia, is forecasted to have its third-largest crop on record. Furthermore, Australia is forecasted to have its second highest crop ever, and U.S. wheat production is forecasted at a 9-year high. Production for several of these key exporting countries is raised this month, contributing to growing global supplies. Despite expectations for record global wheat consumption across both categories of use, ending stocks are still forecasted to rise to a 4-year high following 5 consecutive years of declines.
U.S. wheat production for the 2025/26 marketing year is unchanged at 1,985 million bushels. The next official update to the U.S. wheat crop will come with the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Production Annual Summary, scheduled to be published on January 12, 2026. U.S. wheat exports for June–August 2025 totaled 253 million bushels (grain- equivalent units), up 14% from the same period last year. U.S. all-wheat imports for 2025/26 are unchanged at 120 million bushels with no by class adjustments. Official U.S. wheat imports for June–August 2025 totaled 31 million bushels, nearly un- changed from June–August 2024. The 2025/26 season-average farm price is forecast unchanged at $5.00. The August 2025 all- wheat farm price reported in the USDA, NASS Agricultural Prices publication was $4.84 per bushel, down from $4.94 in July 2025. The recent 5-year average of marketing weights suggests that producers sold approximately 44% of the 2025/26 crop during June 2025–August 2025.
Oil Crops Outlook: December 2025- U.S. soybean ending stocks forecast for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 is projected at 290.0 million bushels, unchanged from last month. The U.S. soybean supply and demand forecasts for MY 2025/26 are unchanged this month. The 2025/26 U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is forecast at $10.50 per bushel, unchanged from last month’s forecast but higher than the MY 2024/25 price of $10.00 per bushel. With unchanged domestic supply and demand for soybean meal and soybean oil, meal and oil price forecasts are unchanged this month and stand at $300.00 per short ton and $0.53 per pound, respectively.
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) remained relatively unchanged from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 8 cents under to 32 cents over, with an average of 15 cents over with the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending December 5th was 1.105 million barrels, down 21,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 22.510 million barrels, down 1,000 barrels compared to last week. Cash prices ranged from $4.29 to $4.79 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.31, which is down 5 cents compared to last Friday. For the week, December 2025 corn futures traded between $4.28 and $4.40.
This week, new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.29 to $4.82 at elevators and barge points. March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.40, down 4 cents compared to the previous Friday.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West- Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 32 under to 57 over the January futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 5 cents over. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.56 to $11.51. January 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.76, down 29 cents compared to last Friday. For the week, January 2026 soybean futures traded between $10.75 and $11.07.
September 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.83, down 21 cents since last Friday.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for December 12th were down to 61.72 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 66.47 cents/lb (31-3 -35).
For the week, March 2026 cotton futures traded between 63.55 to 64.53 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were -3.7 cents and -2.6 cents. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 64.91 cents, down .09 cents compared to last Friday. December 2026 cotton futures closed at 67.53 cents, up 5.4 cents compared to last Friday.
Wheat
For the week, March 2026 cotton futures traded between 63.55 to 64.53 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were -3.7 cents and -2.6 cents. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 64.91 cents, down .09 cents compared to last Friday. December 2026 cotton futures closed at 67.53 cents, up 5.4 cents compared to last Friday.
December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.34, down 3 cents compared to last Friday. December 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.26 and $5.41 last week. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.53, down 5 cents since last Friday. ∆
DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ
UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSE