Cattle Market Outlook 2026 Edition
DR. ANDREW P. GRIFFITH
KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE
It is difficult to know if writing an article with cattle price expectations for another year is worth the time and effort or if it is fruitless. It seems appropriate from a planning standpoint, but it seems useless after watching the wild ride of 2025 as it relates to cattle prices. A similar article was written one year ago, and prices in 2025 far exceeded any expectations discussed in that article. Despite that poor performance, the motto has always been, “If at first you fail, try to fail a second time!” Thus, the article lives on for another year.
The markets in 2025 were certainly exciting for most everyone in the industry. The excitement stems from prices that seemed to increase with no ceiling. Figure 1 illustrates 550-600 pound steer prices in Tennessee in 2023, 2024 and 2025. Dating back to November 2024, there were nearly 12 months in which the price of calves increased before plateauing and finding some weakness. The weakness in the market stems more from endless uncertainty and political rhetoric. Despite the uncertainty in the domestic and international markets, the fundamentals of the cattle and beef markets have continued to support cattle and beef prices. The question at hand is if the fundamentals will continue to inform price decisions in cattle and beef markets or if that will be over powered by outside sources and political jawboning.
It should be noted the political landscape is important to consider especially from an international trade standpoint, but even domestic policy can influence consumer decision making. Up to this point, political statements have had a greater influence on futures markets than on cash markets and a much larger impact on cattle prices than on retail beef prices. The expectation is for this uncertainty to persist and lead to continued volatility in all aspects of the market.
Given the difficulty of predicting cattle prices one to 12 months in advance, an appropriate place to start the discussion as it relates to cattle producer profitability is with expected costs in the cow-calf sector. The 2026 University of Tennessee Extension cow-calf budget can be found at https://arec.tennessee.edu/extension/budgets/ along with other budgets developed for 2026. The estimated variable costs for a cow-calf pair in 2026 is $837, which is $20 per head higher than one year ago. Total estimated expenses for 2026 are $1,184 per pair. These cost expectations should provide plenty of room for profitability at the cow-calf level regardless of the cattle price level in 2026.
If the reader prefers to focus on cattle price expectations then this is the place. First, cattle prices are not expected to exceed the highs established in 2025, but they are expected to remain elevated. The annual average price for a 550 to 600 pound steer in Tennessee in 2025 was just under $350 per hundredweight. The expectation for a 550 pound steer in Tennessee for 2026 is $335 per hundredweight. Thus, the expectation is for the annual average price of all classes of feeder cattle and finished cattle to decline slightly in 2026. This may be counterintuitive since the expectation of heifer retention is in the near future and will constrict feeder cattle thru put more so than now. However, the thought is the market overvalued cattle for a short time and a correction has occurred. Thus, heifer retention will support prices the next few years.
The market segment that is expected to remain strong and maybe increase further is the slaughter cow market. There is a strong demand for lean grinding beef. The likelihood of that market dissolving is small and more likely to thrive. Overall, cattle markets will still be strong in 2026. ∆
DR. ANDREW P. GRIFFITH
UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE