Mixed Reactions To This Week’s WASDE Report

DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

This week the WASDE report was released. Below are the highlights from the report. The market responded to the report with mixed reactions. Corn and Soybeans ended the week lower compared to last week, while Cotton and Wheat finished the week strong. 

WHEAT: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and larger ending stocks. 

The global wheat outlook for 2025/26 is for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are raised 4.3 million tons to 1,102.2 million primarily on higher production for Argentina and Russia that more than offsets a reduction for Turkey. With over 90% of the wheat harvest in Argentina complete, the production forecast is raised 3.5 million tons to a record 27.5 million, nearly 50% larger than the previous year. The production forecast for Russia is also increased, up 2.0 million tons to 89.5 million based on higher preliminary yields reported by Rosstat. Global consumption is raised 0.9 million tons to 823.9 million, primarily on larger use in Russia, Ukraine, and Morocco. World trade is 1.1 million tons higher at 219.8 million as larger exports for Argentina and Kazakhstan are only partly offset by lower forecasts for the EU and Ukraine. Projected global ending stocks are raised 3.4 million tons to 278.3 million, primarily on increases for Russia and Argentina. 

CORN: This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, higher feed and residual use, reduced food, seed, and industrial use, and greater ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at 17.0 billion bushels, up 269 million on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 186.5 bushels per acre and a 1.3-million acre rise in harvested area. Since the July 2025 WASDE, harvested area has surged 4.5 million acres. Notably, the record crop in 2025 exceeds the prior high set in 2023 by 1.7 billion bushels or over 40 million tons. 

SOYBEAN: U.S. soybean supply for 2025/26 is raised 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean crush for 2025/26 is raised 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels on higher soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean meal and soybean oil extraction rates are also revised based on early-season data. Soybean oil used for biofuel is lowered 0.7 billion pounds to 14.8 billion on lower-than-expected use to date and strong use of tallow as a feedstock in recent months. 

U.S. soybean exports are revised 60 million bushels lower to 1.575 billion on higher production and exports for Brazil. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels, up 60 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025/26 is projected at $10.20 per bushel, down 30 cents, reflecting reported NASS prices during the first quarter of the marketing year and expectations for future marketings and prices. The soybean meal price is forecast at $295 per short ton, down $5. The soybean oil price is unchanged at 53 cents per pound. 

COTTON: The 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet for January shows lower production and ending stocks compared to December. Beginning stocks, consumption, exports, and imports are unchanged. Production is reduced by over 2 percent from last month to 13.9 million bales primarily because of lower production across the Delta. The national average yield declined by 8 percent from last month to 856 pounds per acre as a result of lower yields in the Delta and larger harvested area in the South-west. With the smaller crop, ending stocks are reduced by 7 percent to 4.2 million bales, or 30.4 percent of disappearance. The projected season average farm price is raised to 61 cents per pound. 

Next week, I will dive further into input pricing. This was suggested by a producer during a crop marketing meeting this week. 

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) weakened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 21 cents un- der to 24 cents over, with an average of 8 cents over with the March futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending January 9th was 1.196 million barrels, up 98,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 24.473 million barrels, up 821,000 barrels compared to last week. Cash prices ranged from $4.00 to $4.49 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.24, which is down 21 cents compared to last week. For the week, March 2026 corn futures traded between $4.17 and $4.48. 

For the week January 2-8, 2026, there was an increase in total net sales of 1,139,500 MT for 2025/2026, which was down 10% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 1,555,600 MT were up 11% from the previous week and 4% from the prior 4-week average. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.00 to $4.58 at elevators and barge points. September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.36, down 17 cents compared to last week. 

Across Tennessee average soybean basis remained relatively weakened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 35 under to 43 over the January futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 16 cents over. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.02 to $10.87. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.63, down 5 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $10.51 and $10.76. 

For the week January 2-8, 2026, there was an increase of net sales of 2,061,900 MT for 2025/2026, which was 54% higher from the prior 4-week average. There was activity of increases for China. Exports of 1,637,400 MT were up 47% from the previous week and 71% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (901,100 MT), Mexico (178,500 MT), Algeria (86,100 MT), the Netherlands (68,800 MT), and the United Kingdom (65,300 MT). September 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.68, up 5 cents since December 19,2025. 

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for January 13th were mixed. Prices were up 62.63 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 67.38 cents/lb (31-3-35). 

For the week January 2-8, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 339,700 RB for 2025/2026 (a marketing-year high), which is up noticeably from the previous week and up 89% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 156,100 RB were up 1% from the previous week and 8% from the prior 4-week average. For the week, March 2026 cotton futures closed at 64.99 on Friday, which is up .58 cents compared to last week. It traded between 64.47 to 65.25 cents. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 65.23 cents, up .32 cents compared to last week. December 2026 cotton futures closed at 69.06 cents, up .23 cents compared to last week. 

Wheat 

Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.80 to $4.83. 

For the week January 2-8, 2026, there was a total net sales of 156,300 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 32% from the previous week, but down 21% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 303,300 MT were up 76% from the previous week, but down 29% from the prior 4-week average. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.96, up 56 cents compared to last week. July 2026 wheat futures traded between $5.31 and $5.50 this week. September 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.55, up 1 cent compared to last week.    ∆

DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ

UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE