Numerous Marketing Year Highs Across Commodities
DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ
KNOSVILLE, TENNESSEE
This week, the trade shows numerous marketing year highs across commodities. This increase in demand has likely aided in the increases seen in various contracts. Hopefully, these are signs of stable demand, thus established price floors. There was no significant USDA reports released this week. But, last week there was a request to cover input prices. Below is a table of current prices.
Overall, the table highlights mixed but notable movements across key energy and fertilizer commodities. Crude Oil futures show a modest month‐over‐month increase of 3.70%, yet remain sharply lower than a year ago with a 23.21% decline, reflecting broader softening in energy markets. Natural Gas, by contrast, exhibits strong upward pressure, surging 48.28% from the previous month and 47.07% year‐over‐year, signaling significantly tighter supply or increased demand. In the fertilizer sector, all major nutrients show month‐over‐month declines, led by DAP with an 8.43% drop and urea down 2.88%, while UAN‐32 and potash show smaller decreases. However, despite these short‐term dips, fertilizers remain considerably more expensive than a year earlier: UAN‐32 is up 27.75% year‐over‐year, Urea 17.18%, Potash 8.56%, and DAP 14.61%, underscoring continued cost pressure on crop production. Longer‐term three‐year comparisons show substantial declines for most fertilizers – particularly Potash (‐35.60%) and UAN‐32 (‐30.80%) – suggesting that while prices are elevated versus last year, they remain well below the peak levels seen earlier in the decade.
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 20 cents under to 26 cents over, with an average of 9 cents over with the March futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending January 16th was 1.119 million barrels, down 77,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 25.739 million barrels, up 1,266,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.02 to $4.53 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.30, which is up 6 cents compared to last week. For the week, March 2026 corn futures traded between $4.21 and $4.31.
For the week January 9-15, 2026, there were net sales of 4,010,600 MT for 2025/2026 (a marketing-year high), which were up from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 1,433,800 MT were down 8% from the previous week and 6% from the prior 4-week average. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.02 to $4.61 at elevators and barge points. September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.42, up 6 cents compared to last week.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis remained relatively weakened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 35 under to 27 over the January futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 7.5 cents over. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.18 to $11.00. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.76, up 13 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $10.57 and $10.79.
For the week January 9-15, 2026, there were net sales of 2,446,000 MT for 2025/2026 (a marketing-year high), which is up 19% from the previous week and 92% from the prior 4-week average. There was another week of activity increases by China. Exports of 1,337,700 MT were down 18% from the previous, but up 11% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (593,500 MT), Japan (139,700 MT), the Netherlands (116,100 MT), Mexico (84,800 MT), and Spain (77,700 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.82, up 13 cents compared to last week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for January 22nd were down compared to last week. Prices were down to 61.63 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 66.38 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both down .83 cents compared to last week prices.
For the week January 9-15, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 412,500 RB for 2025/2026 (a marketing-year high) were up 21% from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 187,800 RB (a marketing-year high) were up 20% from the previous week and 26% from the prior 4-week average. For the week, March 2026 cotton futures closed at 63.81 on Friday, which is down 1.18 cents compared to last week. It traded between 63.57 to 64.97 cents. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 65.23 cents, down .75 cents compared to last week. December 2026 cotton futures closed at 69.01 cents, down .05 cents compared to last week.
Wheat
Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.77 to $4.90.
For the week January 9-15, 2026, there was a total net sales of 618,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026, which were up from the previous week, and up from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 372,400 MT were up 23% from the previous week, but down 3% from the prior 4-week average. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.51, down 45 cents compared to last week. July 2026 wheat futures traded between $5.31 and $5.52 this week. September 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.65, up 10 cents compared to last week. ∆
DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ
UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE