Notable Price Swings In The Soybean Market
DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ
KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE
This week brought some much welcomed price swings in all commodities. Most notable of the price swings was in the soybean market. The futures board continued another increase this week in prices, but the spot market reached levels in Tennessee that have not been seen since the summer of 2024. These price levels continue the previous week’s of good news in the cash market and finally has unlocked the question, “how high can they go now?” We will need some more information to answer that, but given where the board moved for November soybeans, I would look to hedge in those price levels and try to ensure against any volatility this fall.
This week also had the WASDE report and the highlights are below.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for unchanged supplies, modestly lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and slightly higher ending stocks. Domestic use is lowered on reduced food use as indicated by the NASS Flour Milling Products report, issued on February 2. This reduction is partially offset by a fractional increase in seed use. Ending stocks are raised to 931 million bushels, 9 percent higher than last year and the largest since 2019/20. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price remains at $4.90 per bushel.
CORN: This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for greater exports and lower ending stocks. Exports are raised 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion reflecting sales and shipments to date. Export sales and inspection data continued to show robust foreign demand during January and imply total shipments during the September-January period will most likely exceed 1.3 billion bushels. With no supply changes and use rising, corn ending stocks are down 100 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season- average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
SOYBEAN: U.S. 2025/26 soybean supply and use projections are unchanged this month. The season-average soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $295 per short ton and 53 cents per pound, respectively. Global 2025/26 soybean supply and use forecasts include increased production, crush, and ending stocks. Production for Brazil is raised 2.0 million tons to 180.0 million on higher area and yield, reflecting beneficial weather throughout the season and state-level reporting. Production for Paraguay is increased 0.5 million tons to 11.5 million on favorable rainfall over the season.
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 15 cents under to 35 cents over, with an average of 15 cents over with the March futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending February 6th was 1.110 million barrels, up 154,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 25.247 million barrels, up 111,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.13 to $4.75 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.32, which is up 2 cents compared to last week. For the week, March 2026 corn futures traded between $4.13 and $4.75.
For the week January 30- February 5, 2026, there were net sales of 2,069,600 MT for 2025/2026, up 99% from the previous week and 6% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 1,512,500 MT, up 32% from the previous week and 4% from the prior 4-week average. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.17 to $4.74 at elevators and barge points. September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.50, up 7 cents compared to last week.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis weakened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 32 under to 31 over the March futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 7 cents over. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.79 to $11.82. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.18, up 22 cents compared to last week (up 46 cents the last two weeks). For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $10.90 and $11.22.
For the week January 30- February 5, 2026, there were net sales of 281,800 MT for 2025/2026, a marketing-year low, and down 36% from the previous week and 80% from the prior 4-week average. There was another week of activity increases by China. Exports of 1,128,800 MT, down 19% from the previous week and 20% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (746,100 MT), Egypt (115,000 MT), the Netherlands (57,100 MT), Mexico (46,700 MT), and Japan (44,900 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.13, up 19 cents compared to last week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for February 13th were down compared to last week. Prices were down to 60.29 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 65.04 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both up .30 cents compared to last week prices.
For the week January 30- February 5, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 231,000 RB for 2025/2026, down 8% from the previous week and 23% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 188,600 RB, down 20% from the previous week and 10% from the prior 4-week average. For the week, March 2026 cotton futures closed at 62.36 on Friday, which is up 1.30 cents compared to last week. It traded between 60.99 to 62.45 cents. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 64.13 cents, up 1.09 cents compared to last week. December 2026 cotton futures closed at 67.6 cents, unchanged compared to last week.
Wheat
Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.09 to $5.33.
For the week January 30- February 5, 2026, there was a total net sales of 488,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026, up 31% from the previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 580,000 MT, up 44% from the previous week and 59% from the prior 4-week average. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.57, up 8 cents compared to last week. July 2026 wheat futures traded between $5.45 and $5.66 this week. September 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.68, up 1 cent compared to last week. ∆
DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ
UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE