Spot Prices In The Soybean Market Have Continued To Rally

DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

This week, spot prices in the soybean market have continued to rally. I spent the second half of the week at the USDA World Ag Outlook and notable takeaways for me was the projection for farm income and acreage projections. Income is expected to slightly increase and most notable was the cotton income projection, which was net cash farm income of $300,000 for 2026. I think that’s a welcomed statistic for cotton producers, and some of the expectation is based on Government payments. 

From 2019 to 2026, planted area across the five major U.S. crops (corn, soybeans, wheat, upland cotton, and rice) stays within a relatively narrow band, ranging from 227.1 to 240.8 million acres, and settles at 235.7 million acres in 2026. Corn remains the anchor crop, fluctuating between 88.2 and 98.8 million acres and posting the sharpest year‐over‐year change from 2025 to 2026 (down 4.8 to 94.0), which drives the 1.5‐million‐acre decline in the five‐crop total. Soybeans generally trend higher over the period and record the largest 2026 increase (up 3.8 to 85.0). Wheat holds steady in the mid‐40s and edges down 0.3 to 45.0 in 2026, while upland cotton extends a multi‐year slide from its 2022 high but ticks up slightly in 2026 (up 0.1 to 9.2). Rice oscillates around 2.5–3.0 million acres and eases 0.3 to 2.5 in 2026. Relative to 2019, 2026 acreage is higher for corn (+4.6) and soybeans (+8.9), slightly lower for wheat (–0.5) and rice (–0.1), and notably lower for cotton (–4.3), leaving the combined total up 8.6 million acres over the full period. 

As we get into planting season, the board and acreage projections leads me to a thought of price protection. If a move makes profitable sense, I think we need to lock that in. I hope everyone has a great weekend! 

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) remained the same from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 15 cents under to 31 cents over, with an average of 15 cents over with the March futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending February 13th was 1.118 million barrels, up 8,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 25.588 million barrels, up 341,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.11 to $4.70 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.27, which is down 5 cents compared to last week. For the week, March 2026 corn futures traded between $4.24 and $4.31. 

For the week February 6-12, 2026, there were net sales of 1,469,500 MT for 2025/2026, down 29% from the previous week and 33% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 1,626,900 MT, up 8% from the previous week and 13% from the prior 4- week average. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.16 to $4.72 at elevators and barge points. September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.49, 1 cent lower compared to last week. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 32 under to 34 over the March futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 8 cents over. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $11.02 to $11.81. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.19, up 1 cent compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.07 and $11.27. 

For the week February 6-12, 2026, there were net sales of 798,200 MT for 2025/2026, up noticeably from the previous week, but down 20% from the prior 4-week average. There was another week of activity increases by China. Exports of 1,290,600 MT, up 14% from the previous and 1% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (751,500 MT, including 67,400 MT - late), Egypt (223,900 MT), Mexico (94,400 MT), Japan (83,900 MT), and Indonesia (48,500 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.15, up 2 cents compared to last week. 

Cotton 

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for February 20th were up compared to last week. Prices were up to 62.14 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 66.89 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both up 1.85 cents compared to last week prices. 

For the week February 6-12, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 466,300 RB for 2025/2026 (a marketing-year high) were up noticeably and up 70% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 172,600 RB, down 9% from the previous week and 21% from the prior 4-week average. For the week, March 2026 cotton futures closed at 63.03 on Friday, which is .67 cents compared to last week. It traded between 61.34-63.38 cents. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 65.63 cents, up 1.5 cents compared to last week. December 2026 cotton futures closed at 67.6 cents, unchanged compared to last week. 

Wheat 

Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.18 to $5.40. 

For the week February 6-13, 2026, there was a total net sales of 288,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026, down 41% from the previous week and 44% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 322,600 MT, down 44% from the previous week and 26% from the prior 4-week average. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.87, up 30 cents compared to last week. July 2026 wheat futures traded between $5.48 and $5.89 this week. September 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.98, up 30 cents compared to last week.   ∆

DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ

UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE