Planting Season Prep Time Met With Increased Fuel Prices

DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

This time of the year is planting season prep time. This year, prep time has been met with increased fuel prices. This is because the United States and Israel are in a serious conflict with Iran, and some of the fighting has happened in nearby Iraq, where drones and explosions have been reported around airports and bases. This kind of fighting can make it harder and riskier for ships to move oil through important places like the Strait of Hormuz, which has already seen disruptions and fewer ships passing through during the conflict. As a result, the price of oil often goes up, and this week, not only did the price of oil increase but also diesel. 

The price of diesel in Tennessee is closely tied to movements in the broader crude oil market because diesel is refined directly from crude, meaning changes in oil prices flow through the supply chain into retail fuel costs. When crude oil prices rise (like it has this week), refiners face higher input costs, which typically push wholesale and then retail diesel prices upward, something reflected in the recent national increases reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which showed U.S. on‐highway diesel climbing from $3.809 to $3.897 per gallon over the past week. Since Tennessee diesel prices follow the Lower Atlantic (PADD‐1C) regional average, they tend to respond in the same direction, with the most recent weekly increase from $3.708 to $3.808 per gallon showing how shifts in global crude markets translate into local fuel costs. Below is a week- over-week change and percent change of price in Tennessee of the last week. The conflict immediately has led to increased prices. Given the time of year, this could have significant impact for producers across Tennessee. 

On a positive note, in the July wheat chart, it shows July wheat futures for 2026 (blue) lifting off their winter lows near 540– 550¢/bu and pushing back toward the 580–590¢/bu area. The pattern of higher lows since early February and brief breaks above recent resistance suggests momentum is turning upward, an early sign the market may be starting to rally. 

Corn 

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 8 cents under to 48 cents over, with an average of 16 cents over with the March futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending February 27th was 1.095 million barrels, down 5,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 26.337 million barrels, up 691,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.24 to $4.89 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.47, which is up 9 cents compared to last week. For the week, March 2026 corn futures traded between $4.28 and $4.49. 

For the week of February 20-26, 2026, there were net sales of 2,022,600 MT for 2025/2026, up noticeably from the previous week, and up 54% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 1,696,000 MT, down 14% from the previous week, but up 9% from the prior 4-week average. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.29 to $4.88 at elevators and barge points. September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.72, which is 17 cents higher compared to last week. 

Soybeans 

Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 21 under to 54 over the March futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 17 cents over. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $11.29 to $12.17. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.55, up 23 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.25 and $11.59. 

For the week of February 20-26, 2026, there were net sales of 383,500 MT for 2025/2026, down 6% from the previous week and 20% from the prior 4-week average. There was another week of activity increases by China. Exports of 1,119,500 MT, up 38% from the previous week, but down 3% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (669,100 MT), Mexico (137,700 MT), the Netherlands (133,000 MT), Egypt (52,400 MT), and Indonesia (29,400 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.46, up 18 cents compared to last week. 

Cotton 

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for March 6th were down compared to last week. Prices were down to 62.04 cents/ lb (41-4-34), and 66.79 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both down 1.57 cents compared to last week’s prices. 

For the week February 20-26, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 150,400 RB for 2025/2026, down 41% from the previous week and 50% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 282,200 RB (marketing-year high) were up 46% from the previous week and 43% from the prior 4-week average. For the week, March 2026 cotton futures closed at 63.19 on Friday, which is down .42 cents compared to last week. It traded between 60.71-63.19 cents. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 64.2 cents, down 1.41 cents compared to last week. December 2026 cotton futures closed at 68.85 cents, down .85 cents compared to last week. 

Wheat 

Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.58 to $5.74. 

For the week February 20-26, 2026, there was total net sales of 203,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026, down 16% from the previous week and 42% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 348,900 MT, down 35% from the previous week and 24% from the prior 4-week average. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.25, up 26 cents compared to last week. July 2026 wheat futures traded between $5.74 and $6.36 this week. September 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.36, up 27 cents compared to last week.   ∆

DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ

UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE