Planting Advances While Vessels Wait
US RICE PRODUCERS
KATY, TEXAS
If only vessels could discharge their inventory through the Strait of Hormuz as quickly as the U.S. stock market can rebound. The signal is clear to investors that we have made it through the pinch-point in the Iran war. But from our analysis of tracking shipments and actual movements of vessels, it would be a bit premature to assume the conflict is behind us. There is still a vessel of U.S. long grain rice bound for Iraq that is anchored in the gulf, and a smattering of containers loaded with rice around the world, waiting for shipping lanes to reopen (or insurance to go down) to consummate deliveries. Progress? Yes. Back to normal? Nowhere even close.
The USDA Crop Progress report is showing steady progress this week, and well ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Louisiana is registering 83% planted and 71% emerged. Texas is at 58%/40%, and Mississippi is at 55% and 20%. Not quite halfway is Arkansas at 40%/15%, followed by Missouri at 21%/2%. California, as usual, is the last to get planted, registering only 2% in the ground with nothing emerged. In total, that results in 42% planted compared to last year of 31%, and a 5-year average of 28%. Rice emerged is at 23%, ahead of last year’s 17%, and the 5-year average of 15%.
Our most important market, Mexico, has a recent GAIN reportpublished. In it, Post reports both production and consumption are expected to increase based on government programs and population growth. This is a good sign for the U.S., but we will have to fight off strong competition coming from Brazil and Uruguay.
Rice imports in MY 2026/27 are forecast to increase 4% to 880,000 MT, driven by consumption growth. Over the past five years, paddy rice accounted for 75% of total rice imports, with the U.S. holding a dominant 65% share of paddy rice imports, followed by Brazil at 23%, Uruguay at 9%, and Paraguay at 3%. In CY 2025, however, the supply mix shifted significantly; the U.S. share of paddy rice imports declined from 99% to 47%, while Uruguay’s share rose to 30%, Brazil’s to 18%, and Paraguay’s to 5%. This shift is attributed to better prices from South American counterparts, and a higher milling conversion when compared to U.S. long grain rice. Milled rice imports accounted for the remaining 25% of rice imports over the past five years. In CY 25, Uruguay’s market share increased from 15% to 59%, while the US share rose from 30% to 33%. Thailand’s share decreased from 48% to 6%, and Brazil’s fell from 6% to 1%. The remainder came from origins in the near and far east including India, Japan, and Vietnam.
In Asia, prices continue to firm as some form of stabilization found its way into the market, largely based on the unknowns resulting from conflict in Iran on fuel, fertilizer, and input costs. Thailand has increased from $380 pmt last week to $400 pmt this week. Vietnam has bumped from $380 pmt last week to $385 pmt this week, while India has remained at $340 pmt.
The weeklyUSDA Export Sales reportshows net sales of 102,800 MT this week, up noticeably from the previous week and up 85% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 123,200 MT--a marketing-year high--were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Colombia (61,800 MT), Haiti (14,800 MT), Japan (13,900 MT), El Salvador (12,000 MT), and Mexico (11,200 MT). ∆
US RICE PRODUCERS