Corn, Sorghum Crops Fare Well In Areas With Moisture; Prices Looking Up

KAY LEDBETTER

COLLEGE STATION, TEXAS

Across the state, corn and sorghum crops are thriving where moisture is available, but suffering in areas with drought conditions, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts.

As in most years, crop conditions depend on the weather. The spring months and planting time have taken a turn from drought and freeze damage on early planted corn to large parts of Central Texas receiving rain.

A dry start throughout South and South Central Texas put many producers behind schedule, said Ronnie Schnell, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension state cropping system specialist and professor, Texas A&M Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Bryan-College Station. 

 “We’ll see what the weather does moving forward; we seem to have a favorable forecast in the next few weeks, so things should continue to improve,” Schnell said. “The young crops are hanging in there.”

Central Texas production fields picked up some rain, and progressing crops are looking better in those areas. In the High Plains, where planting is just getting underway for many, the ongoing dry spell continues.

“The whole state is waiting to see a change in the weather pattern,” Schnell said. “We might see smaller plants and skinnier leaves initially, but there’s still room to capture yield potential if the beneficial moisture falls.”

Another positive note, he said, is there are no major insect or disease issues, and the very dry conditions are holding weeds in check.

The slow start and pricing situation this year has a few people growing some soybeans that normally wouldn’t, Schnell said.

Prices improve, but input costs rise

Overall, commodities are improving amid geopolitical events in the Middle East that are affecting a lot of markets, said Mark Welch, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist-grain marketing and policy and professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics, Bryan-College Station.

Corn, grain sorghum and soybeans are all seeing higher prices because of their strong fuel-use component, Welch said. If their prices go up, it brings the entire grain complex up.

“We are seeing strong price increases, but we are just putting those corn and soybean crops in the ground – we don’t know about acres or yields or what the weather conditions will be during the growing season, so it is early still,” he said.

At the same time, producers are not seeing any relief from higher input costs. Fuel prices are up, and fertilizer prices are much higher than at the beginning of the year.

“We expect those prices to remain high into 2027,” Welch said. “Any anhydrous that was prepaid or bought was good for those producers, but the later you are getting things going, the more it will hit in 2026, and everyone can expect to pay higher prices into 2027, even if the disruptions stopped today.”

China and other Asian countries rely heavily on fertilizer imports. Brazil imports 95% of its nitrogen, and producers there will start buying fertilizer for their spring crops, which will keep demand higher.

Welch said it may be too early for fertilizer price spikes to show their impact on global grain production, but trends may appear later this summer, especially with continued shipping disruption and higher diesel prices. There will likely be higher demand for fertilizer if the supply is disrupted.

“We may see some increase in fuel use for feed grains and soybeans based on volatility in the crude oil and energy markets,” he said. “The high prices we’re seeing in corn and soybeans, I think, are much more speculative in that we don’t even know what those acres are going to be or what the weather and growing conditions will be.”

In May, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report will provide the first official outlook for 2026 crops. It will include early estimates for wheat, corn and soybean acres and yields, as well as initial demand projections for feed, fuel and exports. Welch said the report will make clearer the cumulative effects of the current market turmoil and projected production.  ∆

KAY LEDBETTER

TEXAS AGRILIFE