U.S. Rice Industry Undergoing A Reset, Quality 2026 Harvest Imperative
US RICE PRODUCERS
KATY, TEXAS
Crop quality will be key this year. With 30% fewer long-grain acres, the market needs the highest-quality ground planting, the highest-quality seeds in the most homogeneous (fewest varieties) product mix possible. We cited a study last week that highlights the importance of reducing the number of varieties planted to improve quality for customers. As we look at rice conditions this week from the USDA’s crop progress report, 8% of the crop is in Excellent condition, 66% in Good, 24% in Fair, and 2% in Poor. This is still too early to make any calls on, and tracks for average condition in the early May reporting. Regarding Planting and Emergence, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas are all but complete, with 95%, 94%, and 93% being planted as of May 3. Arkansas is at 88%, Missouri at 64%, and CA at 30%.
On the ground, the disappearance of old crop rice is structurally inhibited because of the logistical clog in the Straight of Hormuz. The Iraqi vessel on the water still has not been discharged, leaving the product destined to fill the second vessel still in the bins. If not for the severe reduction of acreage hovering at 25% if not more for the new crop, there would be significant concern over where to store the grain.
At its heart, the U.S. long grain industry is undergoing a structural reset. Long Grain acres are projected to be 1.65 million, a 40-year low, and 1.17 million acres below the 2010 peak. From last year to this year, it's expected that Arkansas will lose 24% of its acres, down to 900,000. Mississippi will lose 50%, down to 80,000 acres, while Missouri will lose 19%, down to 170,000 acres. Texas is expected to lose 10%, down to 120,000 acres, and Louisiana is expected to lose 12%, down to 370,000 acres. Milling quality remains an issue as prices of U.S. long grain now systemically hover around 150% above the price out of Asia. Where Arkansas has historically had a milling standard of 55/70, the 2024 crop average was 48/69, and the 2025 crop average was 52/69. As a result, market share in Mexico and Latin America has been leaking to other origins in South America like Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. These struggles have resulted in the increased plantings of fragrant varieties to compete with Thai Jasmine imports, and this modification could have a long-term structural impact on the long-grain industry.
Very little has changed in the Mercosur region since last week, and the same goes for Asia. Prices in Thailand continue to hover at $400pmt, Vietnam at $405pmt, and India at $350pmt. US Long Grain bound for Iraq is quoted at $550pmt, while U.S. paddy is quoted at $280pmt. Paddy from Uruguay is $310, Brazil at $300, with Paraguay and Argentina both at $290. Today, CONMASUR, whose members include the principal rice companies of Mercosur, is meeting in Santiago, Chile, where each country will present its updated supply/demand numbers. This should shed some light on the short and medium-term outlook. Now make your plans to attend thewww.ricemtconvention.comin Cartagena, Colombia, May 26-28, and meet up with all the Americas’ rice market!
The weeklyUSDA Export Sales reportshows net sales of 4,600 MT this week, a
marketing-year low, down 88% from the previous week and 89% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 56,100 MT were down 33% from the previous week and 18% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Colombia (18,900 MT), Japan (13,300 MT), South Korea (7,900 MT), Guatemala (5,600 MT), and Mexico (4,000 MT). ∆
US RICE PRODUCERS