Market Pressures And Production Conditions Continue Shaping The Season
DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ
KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE
This week, there were no USDA reports, but market pressures and production conditions continue shaping the season, with fuel costs up roughly $2.00 per gallon on diesel year-over-year and continuing to elevate per-acre expenses across planting, spraying, and logistics. At the same time, global supply signals remain mixed, as strong South American production prospects compete with emerging weather variability that could still influence yields. Domestically, input cost inflation remains a concern even as some producers are reporting tighter margins compared to last year, with fertilizer, fuel, and interest costs still historically elevated. Weather patterns across major U.S. growing regions will also be a focal point, as soil moisture and temperature trends begin to set the tone for early-season crop development. I hope everyone has a great weekend!
Brazil
I wanted to provide an update on the crop conditions in Brazil. Weather in Brazil has been an important driver of global crop markets, and current patterns are worth watching closely from a U.S. producer perspective. Key production regions, particularly the Center-West (Mato Grosso) and South, have seen periods of both timely rainfall and intermittent dryness, creating a mixed outlook. Adequate moisture during key developmental stages has supported strong soybean and second- crop (safrinha) corn potential, but concerns remain about late-season dryness and heat stress, especially for corn as it moves into pollination and grain fill. In southern Brazil, more variable weather – including excessive rain at times – has raised issues with fieldwork delays and localized yield risk. For U.S. producers, this means Brazil is still positioned to produce large crops, but weather volatility introduces uncertainty that could tighten global supplies if conditions worsen. This dynamic keeps pressure on prices and export competition but also leaves room for market upside if Brazilian production underperforms expectations.
Fuel
Current diesel prices are at $5.66 per gallon, up sharply from $3.54 a year ago. Even short-term increases from last week and last month indicate a steady upward trend, which raises concerns heading into peak planting and spraying. Gasoline prices (regular at $4.55 and premium at $5.41) also affect input transport, labor travel, and custom operations. While E85 remains the lowest-cost option, it is less relevant for most heavy equipment. Overall, rising fuel prices directly increase per-acre production costs, tighten operating margins, and make cost management and fuel efficiency more critical.
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 9 cents under to 42 cents over, with an average of 19 cents over with the May futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending May 1st was 1.017 million barrels, up 8,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 26.02 million barrels, up 139,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.43 to $5.20 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.77, which is down 7 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 corn futures traded between $4.68 and $4.92.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn emerged to be 13% compared to 7% last week, 10% year, and a 5-year average of 9%; corn planted to be 38% compared to 25% last week, 38% last year, and a 5-year average of 34%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated corn emerged to be 62% compared to 46% last week, 28% last year, and a 5-year average of 28%; corn planted to be 87% compared to 80% last week, 58% last year, and a 5-year average of 60%. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.53 to $5.11 at elevators and barge points. For the week of April 24-30, 2026, there were net sales of 1,361,700 MT for 2025/2026 were down 15 percent from the previous week and 4% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 122,800 MT for 2026/2027 were reported for unknown destinations (70,000 MT), Mexico (49,600 MT), and Honduras (3,200 MT). Exports of 2,056,600 MT were up 28% from the previous week and 18% from the prior 4-week average. December corn futures closed at $4.93, down 6 cents from last week.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis weakened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West- Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 25 under to 32 over the May futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 6 cents over. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $11.52 to $12.56. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.85, up 8 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.57 and $11.95.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean emerged to be 13% compared to 8% last week, 6% last year, and a 5-year average of 5%; soybean planted to be 33% compared to 23% last week, 28% last year, and a 5-year average of 23%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated soybeans emerged to be 42% compared to 29% last week, 8% last year, and a 5-year average of 4; soybean planted to be 69% compared to 62% last week, 34% last year, and a 5-year average of 25%. For the week of April 24-30, 2026, there were net sales of 141,900 MT for 2025/2026 (a marketing-year low) were down 45% from the previous week and 51% from the prior 4-week average. Total net sales of 5,500 MT for 2026/2027 were for Indonesia. Exports of 530,800 MT were down 13% from the previous week and 25% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (200,900 MT), Mexico (91,700 MT), Japan (70,300 MT), Indonesia (40,300 MT), and Saudi Arabia (30,900 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.89, up 6 cents compared to last week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for May 7th were up compared to last week. Prices were 80.0 cents/lb (41-4- 34), and 84.75 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both up .80 cents compared to last week’s prices.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton planted to be 21% compared to 16% last week, 20% last year, and a 5-year average of 19%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton planted to be 25% compared to 15% last week, 12% last year, and a 5-year average of 8%. For the week April 24-30,2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 123,300 RB for 2025/2026 were down 24% from the previous week and 35% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 48,400 RB for 2026/2027 reported for Guatemala (35,200 RB) and Indonesia (19,000 RB), were offset by reductions for Vietnam (5,800 RB). Exports of 327,500 RB were down 15% from the previous week and 1% from the prior 4-week average. For the week, May 2026 cotton futures expired at 81.71 cents, down .14 cents compared to last week. December 2026 cotton futures closed at 85.46 cents, up .90 cents compared to last week.
Wheat
Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.92 to $6.26.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat emerged to be 10% compared to 5% last week, 12% last year, and a 5-year average of 10%; spring wheat planted to be 32% compared to 19% last week, 42% last year, and a 5-year average of 35%. The report estimated winter wheat headed to be 49% compared to 34% last week, 37% last year, and a 5- year average of 32%. For the week of April 24-30, 2026, net sales of 78,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 65% from the previous week and 45% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of Net sales of 187,500 MT for 2026/2027 were primarily for unknown destinations (100,000 MT), Thailand (61,000 MT), Mexico (13,700 MT), Colombia (12,000 MT), and Nicaragua (700 MT). Exports of 472,700 MT were up 15% from the previous week and 20% from the prior 4-week average. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.19, down 19 cents compared to last week. September 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.34, down 18 cents compared to last week. ∆
DR. CHARLEY MARTINEZ
UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE