US RICE PRODUCERS

KATY, TEXAS

All eyes on Arkansas, where harvest is expected to get underway in mid-August. While this is the big-ticket item, the potential fallout from Hurricane Bertha on the Louisiana rice harvest is still up in the air, but to date there have been no real negative reports. What we all know is that we don’t need any additional complications for the harvest season; the hot weather in Arkansas is enough to cause worries on quality, so we don’t need difficult weather patterns to augment problems in Louisiana. Harvest is also underway in Texas, where it is otherwise 89% headed and 68% in the good/excellent categories.

Louisiana is just ahead of Texas with 93% headed and 78% in the good/excellent categories. Arkansas is 63% headed and 65% good/excellent. Overall, all six states are reporting 67% headed, and 77% good to excellent. 30% is fair, and 3% is poor. It is still too early to have any solid idea of milling qualities out of Louisiana and Texas. The few reports out of Southwest Louisiana have been positive, where new crop paddy was loaded this week for Honduras. Prices on the ground haven’t changed much as old crop inventory is being burned off in the face of the lighter harvest. Overall outlook is price trending upward due to low acreage, while apparently still plenty of low milling old crop hovers over the market.

A recentUSDA GAIN report from Argentinashows that their MY 2026/27 rice production is forecast at 1.12 million MT rough (729,000 MT milled), with area expanding modestly. However, our sources in the 4 Mercosur countries indicate significant reductions in planted acres. Planting in Paraguay and northern Argentina will be underway this weekend if they have not already. Profitability versus cost of production, much like the U.S., is the current environment. Conditions are also being tempered by forecasts for a strong El Niño, which has producers selectively choosing fields to limit risk; above-average rains expected in southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina could swell irrigation-supplying rivers but also push weather-related area losses above recent norms. Producer prices have climbed from roughly $165/MT rough at harvest in March to near $200/MT on held stocks. Exports are forecast unchanged at 280,000 MT milled, with Chile, Spain, Turkey, Brazil, and Puerto Rico remaining the leading destinations in that order. Several paddy sales to Central America and Mexico out of Brazil and Uruguay have been reported this week.

The most recentUSDA Export Sales report showsnet sales of 9,500 MT this week, up 31 % from the previous week, but down 45% from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (6,700 MT), Jordan (1,700 MT), Saudi Arabia (800 MT), Canada (100 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), and Guatemala (100 MT) were offset by reductions for Haiti (100 MT). Exports of 16,400 MT were down 78% from the previous week and 63% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Haiti (7,100 MT), Canada (2,900 MT), Mexico (2,700 MT), Jordan (1,700 MT), and Saudi Arabia (900 MT). ∆

US RICE PRODUCERS