NASS Finds Pause In Decline Of U.S. Cattle Herd Numbers

MARY HIGHTOWER

FAYETTEVILLE, ARKANSAS

  Mid-year figures from the National Agricultural Statistics Service show a hiatus in an eight-year-long slide in United States cattle numbers, but that news should be taken with some caveats, said James Mitchell, extension livestock economist for the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture.

NASS, part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, reported 94.2 million head of cattle and calves on July 1, slightly above the 94 million head it reported a year earlier. This marks the first increase in the July cattle inventory since 2018. 

In January, the total cattle inventory hit 86.2 million, NASS said, marking the lowest level since 1951, according to another USDA arm, the Economic Research Service.

Mitchell called the current increase marginal.

“We’re talking just 200,000 head higher. These numbers are really saying this is more or less ‘flat’ to ‘slightly higher,’” he said. “This report isn’t going to signal that beef prices will improve anytime soon.”

Mitchell said it’s important to remember the inventory numbers cover more than beef cattle. They also include dairy cows.

“Heifer numbers were up for both beef and dairy heifer replacements, so that contributed to a rise in the overall total,” he said.

The report also revised last year’s estimate downward by an amount equal to this year’s increase, so we shouldn’t place to much emphasis on higher cattle inventories in this year’s report, Mitchell said.

“The take home is that we saw an increase in beef cow replacement heifer numbers, but the overall total is still very, very small,” he said. “It’s going to take years and years to build those inventories up to a large enough total to really see an increase in the total beef cow herd.”

July vs. January

“This July mid-year report is slightly different than the January report by which the cattle cycle is generally benchmarked,” Mitchell said. “In the last six months of the year, there’s so much that can happen.”

The January report “is more representative at the state level, so the numbers are more refined,” Mitchell said.

To obtain its July numbers, NASS surveyed more than 17,400 operators across the nation during the first half of July. Surveyed producers were asked to report their cattle inventories as of July 1, 2026, and calf crop for the entire year of 2026.

For its January report, NASS will survey approximately 35,000 operators across the nation during the first half of January. Surveyed producers are asked to report their cattle inventories as of Jan. 1, 2027, and calf crop for the entire year. Ranchers can reply to both surveys by internet, mail, telephone, or in-person interview.

For the July report, “NASS takes an inventory of what was born between January and July, which is generally three-quarters of all calves that will be born this year, and then they estimate what they expect to be born between now and December. That number — the 2026 calf crop — will be 2 percent smaller compared to 2025,” he said.

“That has important implications for beef production and is pointing toward a much tighter supply,” Mitchell said.

SPUR

Ahead of the July report release, USDA announced SPUR, Strengthening Processing for U.S. Ranchers. The program provides up to $500 million in temporary support payments to eligible small- and mid-sized beef processors.

USDA said payments are meant to help beef processors who have faced increased costs of acquiring cattle for processing due to U.S. cattle being at historic lows.

Mitchell said there’s no application process for this program and that USDA would contact eligible processors.   ∆

MARY HIGHTOWER

UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS