AgWatch


U.S. 2013/14 Import Forecast Raised To 22 Million Cwt



   The only 2013/14 supply side revision this month was a 1.0-million cwt increase in total U.S. rice imports to 22.0 million cwt, up 5 percent from a year earlier and second only to the 2007/08 record of 23.9 million cwt. This month’s upward revision, all for medium- and short-grain rice, was based on U.S. Census deliveries through January and expectations regarding imports the remainder of the market year. In December, an unexpected 28,000-ton shipment of brokens from Australia was reported.
   By class, long-grain imports remain projected at 18.5 million cwt, a decline of 1 percent from a year earlier, but still the second highest on record.
   The 2013/14 carryin remains estimated at 36.4 million cwt, 11 percent smaller than a year earlier. The 2013/14 long-grain carryin remains estimated at 21.9 million cwt, 10 percent below a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain carryin remains estimated at 12.2 million cwt, 17 percent below a year earlier. Stocks of brokens are not specified by class.
   The 2013/14 U.S. rice crop remains estimated at 189.9 million cwt, down 5 percent from a year earlier.
   Total U.S. rice supplies in 2013/14 are projected at 248.3 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 5 percent smaller than a year earlier and the smallest U.S. rice supplies since 2003/04.
   U.S. 2013/14 Rough-Rice Export Forecast
   Lowered to 35.0 Million Cwt

   Total use of U.S. rice in 2013/14 remains projected at 220.0 million cwt, 2 percent below a year earlier, with exports accounting for all of the expected decline. There were no revisions by class. Long-grain total use remains projected at 156.0 million cwt, 6 percent below a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain use remains projected at 64.0 million cwt, almost 7 percent above a year earlier, with both domestic use and exports projected higher.
   Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2013/14 remains projected at 120.0 million cwt, up 1.5 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 89.0 million cwt, nearly unchanged from a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use remains forecast at 31.0 million cwt, 7 percent higher than a year earlier.
   Total exports in 2013/14 remain projected at 100.0 million cwt, 7 percent below a year earlier. These are the smallest U.S. rice exports since 2008/09.
   Long-grain exports remain projected at 67.0 million cwt, 12 percent below a year earlier.
   Northeast Asia is the largest market for U.S. medium- and short-grain exports, with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan accounting for almost all U.S. sales to this region. All purchases by these three countries are the result of annual WTO commitments.
   By type, U.S. rough-rice exports are projected at 35.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but still more than 2 percent above a year earlier.
   Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) are projected at 65.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 11 percent below a year earlier. The upward revision was largely based on recent sales to the Middle East. Northeast Asia, Canada, the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Caribbean remain the top markets for U.S. milled-rice exports. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to account for the bulk of the decline in U.S. milled-rice exports in 2013/14, primarily due to stronger competition from lower priced Asian suppliers.
   Through February 27, data from the weekly U.S. Export Sales report indicated that combined U.S. commercial shipments and outstanding sales were almost 8 percent behind a year earlier, about the same pace as a month earlier. By class and type, combined outstanding sales and exports of long-grain rough-rice were 11.5 percent behind a year earlier for the week ending February 27, compared with being 9.1 percent behind a month earlier. In contrast, combined medium- and short-grain rough-rice outstanding sales and exports were 109 percent ahead of a year earlier through February 27, compared with being 142 percent ahead a month earlier. Turkey and Libya account for almost all U.S. exports of medium- and short-grain rough-rice exports. Long-grain milled-rice exports were 18 percent behind a year earlier for the week ending February 27, little changed from a month earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain milled rice exports were 4 percent ahead of those of a year ago compared with being 2 percent behind a month earlier.
   U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2013/14 are projected at 28.3 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from the February forecast but 22 percent below a year earlier. These are the lowest U.S. ending stocks since 2003/04.
   By class, the 2013/14 U.S. long-grain carryout remains projected at 16.3 million cwt, 26 percent smaller than a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio remains calculated at 10.4 percent, down from 13.2 percent a year earlier and the lowest since 2003/04.
   The medium- and short-grain carryout is projected at 9.7 million cwt, up1.0 million cwt from the February forecast but 21 percent below a year earlier.
   U.S. 2013/14 Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Raised for Both Classes of Rice
   The 2013/14 season-average farm price (SAFP) range for U.S. long-grain rice was revised to $15.30-$15.90 per cwt from $15.10-$15.70 a month earlier, with the mid-point up 20 cents. This is the highest long-grain SAFP on record and compares with a 2012/13 SAFP of $14.50 per cwt.
   The combined medium- and short-grain 2013/14 U.S. SAFP range was revised up to $18.70-$19.30 per cwt from $17.20-$17.80 per cwt last month, an increase in the midpoint of $1.50. This compares with a 2012/13 SAFP of $17.40 per cwt and is the highest since the 2008/09 record of $24.80. This month’s upward revision was based on monthly reported cash prices and marketings through January and expectations regarding prices the remainder of the market year.
   In late February, NASS reported a mid-February U.S. long-grain rough-rice price of $15.80 per cwt, up 30 cents from the revised January estimate. The mid-February long-grain price is the highest since December 2008. For combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid-February NASS price was reported at $20.20 per cwt, up $3.80 from the revised January price and the highest since September 2009. The January price was raised 50 cents from the midmonth estimate to $17.40 per cwt.∆
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