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Rice Acreage Increases Over Last Year
U.S. rice plantings in 2014/15 are estimated at 3.05 million acres, up 6 percent from the March intended plantings and 22 percent above a year earlier.
Long-grain plantings are estimated at 2.33 million acres, up 5 percent from the March intentions and 31 percent larger than a year earlier.
Combined medium- and short-grain plantings are estimated at 716,000 acres, up 10 percent from the March intended plantings and 1 percent higher than a year earlier.
Rice plantings increased in 2014/15 in all reported southern States except Texas, with Arkansas accounting for the bulk expansion in rice area.
Severe drought, low reservoir levels, and water restrictions caused California rice plantings to decline nearly 13 percent in 2014/15 to 495,000 acres, the smallest since 2001/02.
U.S. 2014/15 Rice Crop Forecast at 226.0 Million Cwt
The U.S. 2014/15 rice crop is forecast at 226.0 million cwt, an increase of 6 percent from last month’s forecast and 19 percent larger than a year earlier.
U.S. Rice Supplies in 2014/15 Projected to Increase 12 Percent
Total U.S. supplies of rice in 2014/15 are projected at 279.8 million cwt, up 12.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 12 percent above a year earlier.
The beginning stocks forecast for 2014/15 was raised 0.5 million cwt to 32.8 million cwt, still 10 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2009/10. The medium- and short-grain carryin forecast was increased 0.5 million cwt to 11.2 million cwt, still 8 percent below a year earlier. Stocks of brokens, included in the all-rice estimate, are not classified by class.
Total U.S. rice imports in 2014/15 are projected at 21.0 million cwt, a 1.0-million cwt reduction in the previous forecast and 9 percent below the year-earlier revised forecast.
Combined medium- and short-grain rice imports are projected at 2.5 million cwt, down 0.5 million cwt from the June forecast and almost 29 percent below a year earlier.
U.S. 2014/15 Export Forecast Raised to 107.0 Million Cwt
Total use of U.S. rice in 2014/15 is projected at 240.0 million cwt, up 10.0 million from last month’s forecast and 14 percent larger than a year earlier’s revised forecast. Both total domestic use (including a residual component) and exports are projected to be larger than a year earlier. Total long-grain use in 2014/15 is projected at 178.0 million cwt, an increase of 5.0 million from last month’s forecast and 16 percent larger than a year earlier. For combined medium- and short-grain rice, total use is projected at 62.0 million cwt, also up 5.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast, but down almost 1 percent from a year earlier.
Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2014/15 is projected at 133.0 million cwt, up 5.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 8 percent larger than a year earlier.
Total exports in 2014/15 are projected at 107.0 million cwt, up 5.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 14 percent larger than a year earlier. The monthly revision is primarily based on larger supplies and a lower U.S. price forecast.
U.S. long-grain exports are projected at 75.0 million cwt, up 3.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 19 percent above a year earlier.
Combined medium- and short-grain U.S. exports in 2014/15 are projected at 32.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 5 percent larger than a year earlier.
By type, U.S. rough-rice exports remain projected at 34.0 million cwt, up 13 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain accounts for the bulk of U.S. rough-rice exports, with Latin America the top regional market and Mexico and Central America the largest buyers. Southern long-grain accounts for nearly all of the U.S. rough-rice shipments to Latin America. Turkey and Libya account for the bulk of U.S. medium- and short-grain rough-rice exports, taking mostly California rice.
Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) are projected at 73.0 million cwt, up 5.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 15 percent larger than a year earlier.
U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2014/15 are projected at 39.8 million cwt, up 2.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 21 percent larger than a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 16.6 percent, up from a revised 15.2 percent in 2013/14.
The medium- and short-grain carryout remains projected at 8.7 million cwt, 22 percent smaller than a year earlier.
2013/14 U.S. Export Forecast Raised to 93.5 Million Cwt
There was only one revision to the 2013/14 supply-side estimates this month: the 2013/14 import forecast was raised 1.0 million cwt to 23.0 million cwt, with long-grain accounting for all of the increase.
On the use side, the 2013/14 U.S. export forecast was raised 1.5 million cwt to 93.5 million cwt based on shipment data reported by the U.S. Census Bureau through May, shipment and sales data reported in the weekly U.S. Export Sales through June 26, and expectations regarding shipments for the remainder of the market year. Sales to the Middle East were stronger than expected over the past month.
Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough-rice basis) were revised up 3.0 million cwt to 63.5 million cwt, while U.S. rough-rice exports were lowered 1.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast to 30.0 million cwt.
The 2013/14 total domestic and residual use forecast was lowered 1.0 million cwt to 123.0 million cwt, based on data from the June Rice Stocks report indicating slightly lower than previously expected August-May domestic disappearance.
On balance, these revisions increased total U.S. ending rice stocks 0.5 million cwt to 32.8 million cwt, with medium- and short-grain accounting for all of the upward revision in ending stocks.
Data from the June 30 Rice Stocks indicate U.S. rice stocks on June 1, 2014 were 58.6 million cwt (sum of both milled- and rough-rice stocks converted to rough basis), slightly higher than expectations.
U.S. Season-Average Farm Price Forecasts Lowered for 2013/14 and 2014/15
The 2014/15 season-average farm price (SAFP) range for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $12.00-$13.00 per cwt, down 80 cents on both the high and low end from last month’s forecast. The 2014/15 SAFP for long-grain rice is below the $15.40 per cwt forecast for 2013/14 and is the lowest since 2010/11.
The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. SAFP range is projected at $17.00-$18.00 per cwt, down $1.20 on both the high and low ends from last month’s range. This compares with a revised $17.80 per cwt for 2013/14.
In late June, NASS reported a mid-June U.S. long-grain rough-rice price of $15.80 per cwt, up 30 cents from the revised May estimate. The mid-June long-grain price is the highest since December 2008. The May price was lowered 20 cents to $15.50 from a preliminary $15.70. For combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid-June NASS price was reported at $18.70 per cwt, up 30 cents from the May price. The May price of $18.40 per cwt is 50 cents below the preliminary price of $18.90 per cwt. ∆
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