AgWatch


Global Rice Production Forecast Up 2 million Tons















   Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 479.4 million tons (milled basis), down 1.3 million tons from last month’s forecast, but still up almost 2.0 million tons from 2013/14 and the largest crop on record.
   The record global crop in 2014/15 is the result of expanded area. At a record 161.5 million hectares, global rice area in 2014/15 is up 0.9 million hectares from a year earlier. The average global yield, forecast at 4.43 tons per hectare (on a rough-rice basis), is unchanged from 2013/14 and just fractionally below the 2012/13 record of 4.45 tons.
   There were two downward production revisions for 2014/15 this month. First, India’s 2014/15 rice production forecast was lowered 2.0 million tons to 104.0 million based on a delayed and weak monsoon that has reduced both area and yield forecasts.
   In addition, Australia’s 2014/15 crop (to be harvested next May-June) was lowered 114,000 tons to 576,000 tons due to a smaller area forecast.
   These two production reductions were partially offset by three upward revisions. First, Vietnam’s 2014/15 production forecast was raised 400,000 tons to a record 28.2 million tons based on a larger winter-spring crop reported by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Ho Chi Minh City.
   Second, the U.S. 2014/15 production forecast was raised 416,000 tons to 7.23 million tons based on a higher area estimate reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Finally, Kazakhstan’s 2014/15 crop was increased 12,000 tons to 237,000 tons based on a larger area forecast reported by the Government.
   Global rice production in 2013/14 remains forecast at 477.5 million tons, up 5.8 million tons from a year earlier and the second largest crop on record.
   Vietnam’s 2013/14 production forecast was raised 200,000 tons to 28.0 million tons based on a larger winter-spring crop reported by the Government of Vietnam. In addition, Argentina’s 2013/14 production forecast was raised 19,000 tons to 1.03 million tons based on a higher yield.
   There were three downward revisions. First, Brazil’s 2013/14 production forecast was lowered 100,000 tons to 8.5 million based on slightly lower area. Second, the Philippines production was lowered 77,000 tons to 11.8 million tons based on Bureau of Agricultural Statistics data indicating a slightly smaller area. Third, Australia’s 2013/14 crop forecast was lowered 59,000 tons to 594,000 tons due to a lower area forecast reported by ABARE.
   Global rice consumption and residual use in 2014/15 is projected at a record 482.4 million tons, up 0.2 million from last month’s forecast and more than 1 percent larger than a year earlier.
   Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 108.5 million tons, down 2.1 million tons from last month’s forecast and almost 3 percent below a year earlier and the first decline since 2006/07.
   U.S. 2015 Rice Export Forecast Raised to 3.5 Million Tons
   Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade is forecast at a record 41.5 million tons, up 0.25 million tons from the previous forecast and almost 2 percent higher than 2014.
   The only 2015 export revision this month is a 0.25-million tons increase in U.S. exports to 3.5 million tons, up 11 percent from a year earlier and the highest since 2010.
   On an annual basis, Thailand is projected to replace India as the largest rice exporter, shipping 10.0 million tons, an increase of 11 percent from 2014 and the highest since the record of 10.6 million was shipped in 2011.
   There were several 2015 import revisions this month, mostly in Asia or Sub-Saharan Africa. In Asia, Vietnam’s 2015 import forecast was raised 0.1 million tons to 0.4 million tons based on increased imports from Cambodia to offset Vietnam’s record shipments to China. In addition, Pakistan’s 2015 imports were raised from zero to 30,000 tons based on likely continued donations at the 2014 level. In contrast, the Philippines’ import forecast was lowered 200,000 tons to 1.6 million tons based on recommendations from the USDA Agricultural Office in Manila.
   In Sub-Saharan Africa, Mozambique’s 2015 import forecast was raised 45,000 tons to a record 520,000 tons based on revised 2014 import forecasts. Cameroon’s 2015 import forecast was increased 25,000 tons to a near-record 525,000 tons, also based on revised 2014 trade revisions. Finally, Mauritania’s 2015 rice import forecast was raised 10,000 tons to 110,000 tons to match consumption growth. The only import revision outside Asia or Africa was a 30,000-ton reduction in the U.S. 2015 import forecast to 670,000 tons based on a larger U.S. crop.
   On an annual basis, China is projected to import a record 3.7 million tons in 2015, up 16 percent from 2014. High domestic prices, slow production growth, and rising use are the main factors driving China’s rice imports.
   The 2014 global trade forecast was raised 0.15 million tons to 40.8 million tons, 3.5 percent above a year earlier and the second highest on record.
   There were several revisions to 2013 trade estimates based on year-end shipment data from Pakistan and Egypt, with global 2013 rice trade increased 0.43 million tons to 39.4 million tons. Pakistan’s 2013 export estimate was increased 526,000 tons to a record 4.13 million tons. In contrast, Egypt’s 2013 exports were lowered 150,000 tons to 700,000 tons.
   Thailand’s Prices Increase While U.S. Prices Decline
   Prices for all grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have increased 4-5 percent since early June due to tight supplies of exportable rice caused by the military Government’s decision to halt the movement of Government rice stocks from storage warehouses until the inspection of rice quantity and quality is completed.
   Prices for Thailand’s high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (fob vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $415 per ton for the week ending July 7, up $17 from the week ending June 9. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $398 per ton for the week ending July 7, also up $17 from the week ending June 9.
   Price quotes from Vietnam have increased 2-3 percent over the past month. For the week ending July 8, prices for Vietnam’s double-water-polished with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $410 per ton, up $10 from the week ending June 10.
   U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have declined over the past month. For the week ending July 8, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4- percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulf port) were quoted at $557 per ton, down $22 from a month earlier. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect a free-on-board vessel location) over Thailand’s 100-percent grade B is $157 per ton, down $37 from a month earlier and the lowest since August 2013. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) were quoted at $365 per ton for the week ending July 8, down $15 from a month earlier.
   Prices for California milled rice for the U.S. market have also declined over the past month. California’s package-quality medium-grain rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers were quoted at $948 per ton for the week ending July 8, down $44 from both a week and a month earlier. Export prices (sacked, port of Oakland) for California milled rice were quoted at $1,130 per ton for the week ending July 8, down $45 from both a week and a month earlier. Price quotes for Vietnam, U.S. long- and medium-grain milled-rice, and U.S. rough-rice export prices are from the weekly Creed Rice Market Report. ∆
MidAmerica Farm Publications, Inc
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