AgWatch


Global Production Estimates Sink Below January Levels

















   Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 474.6 million tons (milled basis), down 0.9 million tons from last month’s forecast and 2.5 million tons below the 2013/14 record global crop. This is the first decline in global production since 2009/10.
   At 160.2 million hectares, global rice area in 2014/15 is fractionally below the year-earlier record.
   Southeast Asia accounts for the bulk of this month’s downward revision in global production, with 2014/15 crop forecasts lowered for two exporters.  First, Thailand’s 2014/15 production forecast was lowered 1.0 million tons to 19.5 million tons based on drought and low reservoir levels that have reduced plantings of its dry-season crop, which accounts for almost 30 percent of total production.
   In nearby Cambodia, the 2014/15 production forecast was lowered 0.2 million tons to 4.7 million, based on lower area and a weaker yield caused by excessive flooding in the Northwest growing area, mostly in July and August.
   Argentina’s 2014/15 crop (harvested this April-May) was lowered 39,000 tons to 975,000 tons based on a weaker yield and slightly less area as a result of extended flooding in the province of Corrientes and cloudy days. Finally, Japan’s 2014/15 production estimate was reduced 41,000 tons to 7.66 million tons based on year-end Government data indication of a slightly lower area.
   These downward production revisions were partially offset by 4 upward revisions. First, Iraq’s 2014/15 production forecast was raised 97,000 tons to 267,000 tons based on much higher area and yield estimates reported by the Government of Iraq. The crop is 11 percent below the year-earlier revised record, a result of a slightly lower yield. Second, Sri Lanka’s 2014/15 production was raised 0.25 million tons to 2.7 million based on a larger maha crop yield. Sri Lanka’s 2014/15 rice production is still 5 percent below a year earlier. Production forecasts for 2014/15 for Mexico and Russia were raised slightly this month based on higher yields.
   The only back-year revisions were for Iraq. In both 2013/14 and 2012/13, Iraq’s production, area, and yield estimates were raised based on Government data, with 2013/14 yield and production the highest on record.
   Global domestic and residual use for 2014/15 is projected at a record 483.1 million tons, down 0.2 million tons from last month’s forecast but still 2.6 million tons above a year earlier.
   Thailand Is Projected To Export a Record 11.0 Million Tons of Rice in 2015
   Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade is forecast at a near-record 42.2 million tons, down 0.3 million tons from the previous forecast and 1.6 percent below the year-earlier record. 
   There were two 2015 export revisions this month. First, Thailand’s 2015 export forecast was lowered 0.3 million tons to 11.0 million based on smaller supplies.
   The other 2015 export revision was a 20,000-ton reduction in Argentina’s exports to 580,000 tons based on smaller supplies.
   There were two 2015 import revisions this month. First, Iraq’s 2015 import forecast was lowered 200,000 tons to 1.25 million tons based on a much larger crop forecast. Second, Bangladesh’s 2015 import forecast was raised 0.1 million tons to 600,000 tons based on a stronger pace of sales since May.
   The 2014 global rice trade estimate was raised 0.4 million tons to a record 42.9 million tons, up 8 percent from a year earlier.
   There were four upward revisions to 2014 export estimates this month, mostly based on year-end trade data. First, Thailand’s 2014 exports were increased 0.67 million tons to a near record 10.97 million tons based on recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Bangkok. Second, India’s 2014 export forecast was raised 0.3 million tons to a record 10.8 million tons based on January-November trade data. Third, China’s 2014 exports were increased 63,000 tons to 393,000 tons. Finally, the U.S. 2014 export forecast was raised 42,000 tons to 3.042 million tons based on year-end data.
   These upward revisions were partially offset by three reductions. First, Pakistan’s 2014 exports were lowered 0.5 million tons to 3.4 million based on shipment data. Second, Vietnam’s 2014 exports were lowered 175,000 tons to 6.33 million tons based on year-end trade data. Finally, Argentina’s 2014 export estimate was lowered 106,000 tons to 494,000 tons, also based on year-end trade data and also down 6 percent from 2013.
   There were three significant 2014 import revisions this month, all in Asia. First, China’s 2014 imports were raised 0.2 million tons to 4.1 million tons, 18 percent above a year earlier. The upward revision was based on larger shipments from Burma and Thailand.  China has been the largest rice importer since 2013.
   The only significant 2014 import reduction this month was a 0.35-million ton reduction in Iraq’s imports to 1.05 million tons based on a slower than expected pace of purchases.
   Thailand’s Trading Prices Steady; Vietnam’s Prices Continue To Drop
   Prices for all grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice are basically unchanged from a month earlier, largely due to light sales activity.
   Prices for Thailand’s high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (free-on-board (fob) vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $421 per ton for the week ending February 9, down $2 from the week ending January 12. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $405 per ton for the week ending February 9, down $2 from the week ending January 12. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent parboiled rice, a specialty rice, were quoted at $410 per ton for the week ending February 9, also unchanged from the week ending January 12.
   Prices for Thailand’s brokens are unchanged from last month as well.  For the week ending February 9, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $326 per ton, unchanged since late November. 
   Price quotes from Vietnam have decreased over the past month, with sales weak to regular buyers, particularly The Philippines, Indonesia, West Africa, and China. For the week ending February 10, prices for Vietnam’s double-water-polished milled-rice with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $355 per ton, down $20 from the week ending January 13 and the lowest since July 2010. Thailand’s price quotes for 5-percent brokens are currently $50 per ton above quotes for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished milled rice, up from $32 a month earlier.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have declined from a month earlier, but rose this week on Col-Rice’s recent tender for about 63,000 tons of U.S.-origin duty-free milled rice under the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement. For the week ending February 10, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $485 per ton, down $28 from the week ending January 13 but up $11 from the week ending February 3.
   Prices for California’s rice have also declined over the past month. Price quotes for package-quality California medium-grain milled-rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers are quoted at $838 per ton for the week ending February 10, down $22 per ton from a week and a month earlier. Export prices (sac-ked, Port of Oakland) for California milled-rice remain quoted at $1,005 per ton for the week ending February 10, down $10 from the week ending January 10.  U.S. sales and shipments of milled medium-grain rice remain well behind a year earlier, especially to South Korea and Japan. ∆
MidAmerica Farm Publications, Inc
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