AgWatch


Long-Grain Carryin Estimated 26 Percent Smaller Than Last Year
















   There were no supply side revisions this month. Total U.S. supplies of rice in 2014/15 remain projected at 275.9 million cwt, 11 percent higher than a year earlier and the largest total U.S. rice supplies since the 2010/11 record. In 2014/15, a much larger crop more than offsets a smaller carryin and near-steady imports. Long-grain supplies remain projected at 198.1 million cwt, 14 percent above a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain total supplies in 2014/15 remain projected at 75.5 million cwt, 2 percent above a year earlier, mostly due to a larger carryin.
   All-rice beginning stocks for 2014/15 remain estimated at 31.8 million cwt, 13 percent below a year earlier. The 2014/15 long-grain carryin remains estimated at 16.2 million cwt, 26 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain carryin remains estimated 13.3 million cwt, 9 percent larger than a year earlier. Stocks of brokens, included in estimates of total supply and total stocks, are not included in supplies or stocks by class.
   Imports remain projected at 23.0 million cwt, nearly unchanged from a year earlier. Long-grain 2014/15 imports remain projected at 19.5 million cwt, also virtually unchanged from the year-earlier record. Medium- and short-grain imports remain projected at 3.5 million cwt, also nearly unchanged from 2013/14.
   The 2014/15 U.S. rice crop remains estimated at 221.0 million cwt (hundredweight, rough basis), 16 percent above a year earlier. By class, 2014/15 long-grain production remains estimated at 162.4 million cwt, 23 percent above a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain production remains estimated at 58.7 million cwt, 1-percent larger than a year earlier. A 4-percent expansion in harvested area to 727,000 acres more than offset a 2-percent decline in the medium- and short-grain average yield to 8,068 pounds per acre.
   U.S. 2014/15 Long-grain Export Forecast Raised 1.0 Million Cwt to 72.0 Million Cwt
   Total use of U.S. rice in 2014/15 is projected at 235.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 8 percent larger than a year earlier. Total long-grain use in 2014/15 is projected at 171.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 9 percent larger than a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain rice total use remains projected at 64.0 million cwt, 6 percent higher than a year earlier.
   Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2014/15 remains projected at 131.0 million cwt, 5 percent larger than a year earlier and the second highest on record. Long-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 99.0 million cwt, 4 percent above a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use remains forecast at 32.0 million cwt, 8 percent larger than a year earlier.
   Total exports in 2014/15 are projected at 104.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 12 percent larger than a year earlier. 
U.S. 2014/15 long-grain exports are projected at 72.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million from last month’s forecast and 16.5 percent above a year earlier.
   The Western Hemisphere is the largest export market for U.S. long-grain rice, typically accounting for two-thirds of U.S. long-grain shipments, with rough rice accounting for the bulk of U.S. shipments to the Western Hemisphere.
   Combined medium- and short-grain U.S. exports in 2014/15 remain projected at 32.0 million cwt, 7 percent larger than a year earlier. Northeast Asia and the Middle East (including North Africa) account for the bulk of U.S. medium- and short-grain exports, with Northeast Asia – Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan – typically taking almost two-thirds of total U.S. medium- and short-grain exports.
By type, U.S. rough-rice exports remain projected at 35.0 million cwt, up 22 percent from a year earlier.
   Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) are projected at 69.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 8 percent larger than a year earlier.
   At 931,100 tons, U.S. long-grain rough-rice outstanding commercial sales and shipments were 17 percent ahead of a year earlier for the week ending February 26, with shipments 18-percent ahead and outstanding sales 1-percent ahead. Medium- and short-grain U.S. rough-rice exports and outstanding sales of 210,500 tons were 2 percent ahead of a year earlier for the week ending February 26. Sales of medium- and short-grain rough-rice have been quite small since late December; shipments have been light since mid-January.
   Long-grain milled-rice commercial exports and sales totaled 729,400 tons for the week ending February 26 and were up 18 percent from a year earlier. 
   U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2014/15 are projected at 40.9 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but still 28 percent larger than a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 17.4 percent, up from 14.6 percent in 2013/14. By class, the 2014/15 U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 27.1 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 67 percent larger than a year earlier and the highest since 2010/11. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 16.5 percent, up from 10.3 percent in 2013/14. The medium- and short-grain carryout remains projected at 11.5 million cwt, 14 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio remains estimated at 17.9 percent, down from 22.0 percent in 2013/14.
   U.S. 2014/15 Season-Average Farm Price Forecasts Raised for both Classes of Rice
   The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) range is projected at $18.10-$18.90 per cwt, up 20 cents on both the low end and high end of last month’s range. The midpoint of the 2014/15 medium- and short-grain SAFP – $18.50 per cwt – is up 20 cents from the previous month’s midpoint but 70 cents below the 2013/14 SAFP of $19.20 per cwt.
   The 2014/15 SAFP range for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $12.20-$12.80 per cwt, up 30 cents on both the low and high end of last month’s forecast. The midpoint of the 2014/15 long-grain SAFP of $12.50 per cwt is well below the 2013/14 SAFP of $15.40 per cwt and is the lowest long-grain SAFP since 2010/11. The expected price decline in 2014/15 is primarily based on larger U.S. supplies, weaker prices for other agricultural commodities, lower global trading prices, and a stronger U.S. dollar. The 2014/15 all-rice U.S. SAFP was raised 30 cents on both the high and low end to $14.00-$14.60 per cwt due to higher SAFP forecasts for long-grain and medium- and short-grain rice. This is well below the $16.30 reported for 2013/14.
   In late February, NASS reported a January U.S. long-grain rough-rice cash price of $12.50 per cwt, up 10 cents from December and the first increase since June. Since the start of the 2014/15 market year in August, long-grain cash prices have dropped $1.80 per cwt. ∆
MidAmerica Farm Publications, Inc
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