2015 Pork Production, Hog Slaughter Rises
USDA’s June WASDE forecasts increased expected 2015 pork production by 0.2 percent, but left 2016 production unchanged. USDA is now predicting 7.1 percent more pork this year than last and 1.0 percent more pork in 2016 than in 2015. USDA expects barrow and gilt prices to average close to $50/cwt live this year and $46/cwt next year.
The June WASDE left USDA’s corn price forecast for the 2015-16 marketing year unchanged at $3.20-3.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price forecast also was unchanged at $305-345 per ton.
Avian Influenza continues to take a heavy toll on the nation’s turkey and egg laying flocks. Over 7 million turkeys and 37 million layers have been lost to the disease thus far this year. USDA's June WASDE lowered expected 2015 turkey production by 6.3 percent from the May forecast and lowered predicted egg production by 4 percent. USDA raised their forecast of 2015 egg prices by a whopping 22 percent.
Thursday’s negotiated carcass price for plant delivered hogs averaged $77.42/cwt which is $1.18 lower than a week earlier.
Peoria had a top live price today of $51/cwt, $3 lower than last Friday. The top price today for interior Missouri live hogs was $55/cwt, unchanged from the previous Friday.
The national average negotiated barrow and gilt purchase price on the morning report today was $76.73/cwt, down $1.70 from last Friday. Both the western corn belt and Iowa-Minnesota averaged $77.51/cwt for negotiated purchases this morning. There was no eastern corn belt negotiated price quote this morning.
This morning’s pork cutout value was $85.02/cwt FOB the plants. That is down 39 cents from the week before and down $35.86 from a year ago.
This morning’s national negotiated hog price equaled 90.2 percent of the cutout value.
Hog slaughter this week totaled 2.128 million head, up 0.4 percent from the week before and up 11.2 percent from same week last year.
Year-to-date hog slaughter is up 6.1 percent and pork production is up 5.9 percent.
USDA will release the results of their latest hog inventory survey on June 26. Look for upward revisions in last fall’s pig crop estimate.
The average live slaughter weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 282.1 pounds, down 0.8 pound from the week before and down 4.6 pounds from a year ago. This was the eleventh consecutive week with weights lighter than last year.
The June lean hog futures contract closed today at $81.45/cwt, down 22 cents for the week. July hog futures ended the week at $78.05/cwt, down $3.07 from the week before. August hogs lost $4.10 this week to close at $76.72/cwt. The October contract settled at $67.35/cwt.
The July corn futures contract settled at $3.53/bushel today, down 8 cents for the week. The September corn contract ended the week at $3.59. ∆
DR. RON PLAIN AND DR. SCOTT BROWN: Agricultural Economists, University of Missouri