2017/18 Rice Supplies Projected To Drop











   There were no revisions this month to the 2017/18 U.S. rice balance sheet. The 2017/18 U.S. rice crop remains estimated at 178.2 million cwt, more than 20 percent below a year earlier. The substantial year-to-year production decline is the result of a 23-percent decrease in harvested area to 2.37 million acres, the smallest since 1987/88. The area reduction is partially offset by a 4-percent increase in yield to 7,507 pounds per acre, still below the 2013/14 record of 7,694 pounds.
   Beginning stocks remain estimated at 46.0 million cwt, down 1 percent from a year earlier. U.S. rice imports remain forecast at 24.9 million cwt, up 6 percent from a year earlier and the highest on record. Thailand and India account for most the stronger pace of U.S. rice imports in 2017/18, with Thailand accounting for more than 60 percent of these imports. Total U.S. rice supplies remain projected at 249.2 million cwt, 15 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2003/04.
   Total use of U.S. rice in 2017/18 remains forecast at 220.0 million cwt, 11 percent below a year earlier. In 2017/18, both exports and domestic use are limited by much smaller supplies. Total domestic and residual use in 2017/18 remains projected at 120.0 million cwt, 9 percent below a year earlier. 
   Total U.S. rice exports in 2017/18 remain projected at 100.0 million cwt, 14 percent below a year earlier. By class, 2017/18 long-grain exports remain forecast at 71.0 million cwt, 10 percent below a year earlier. The Western Hemisphere is the largest market for U.S. long-grain rice, with the majority of the rice shipped as unmilled rough-rice. Mexico, Central America, Haiti, Venezuela, Canada, and Colombia account for the bulk of the U.S. long-grain exports in the Western Hemisphere. Outside the Western Hemisphere, the Middle East is currently the largest market for U.S. long-grain rice. Combined U.S. medium- and short-grain exports in 2017/18 remain projected at 29.0 million cwt, 24 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2014/15 when a West Coast port strike delayed shipments until early in the 2015/16 market year. The current medium- and short-grain export forecast indicates few sales outside the core Northeast Asian markets and Canada.
   By type, rough-rice exports remain projected at 34.0 million cwt, 20 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2011/12. Through late January, there have been virtually no U.S. rough-rice sales to the Middle East. These two regions take exclusively medium- and short-grain rough-rice. U.S. rough-rice sales to top long-grain buyer Venezuela have been well below a year earlier as well. Milled rice exports (combined milled and brown rice exports on a rough-rice basis) remain projected at 66.0 million cwt, 11 percent below a year earlier. Haiti, Japan, Canada, South Korea, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq are the top markets for U.S. milled rice.
   U.S. ending stocks in 2017/18 remain forecast at 29.2 million cwt, 37 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2003/04. The stocks-to-use ratio remains estimated at 13.3 percent, well below 18.6 percent a year earlier. Long-grain 2017/18 ending stocks remain forecast at 16.4 million cwt, 47 percent below a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ration of 10.0 percent is well below 17.4 percent a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use-ratio rarely drops below 10 percent. Medium- and short-grain ending stocks remain forecast at 9.3 million cwt, 19 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 2008/09. The medium- and short-grain 2017/18 stocks-to-use ratio of 16.6 percent is little changed from a year earlier.
   U.S. Total Rice Supplies Projected To Drop 15 percent in 2017/18
   There were no revisions this month to the 2017/18 U.S. rice balance sheet. The 2017/18 U.S. rice crop remains estimated at 178.2 million cwt, more than 20 percent below a year earlier. The substantial year-to-year production decline is the result of a 23-percent decrease in harvested area to 2.37 million acres, the smallest since 1987/88. The area reduction is partially offset by a 4-percent increase in yield to 7,507 pounds per acre, still below the 2013/14 record of 7,694 pounds.
   Beginning stocks remain estimated at 46.0 million cwt, down 1 percent from a year earlier. U.S. rice imports remain forecast at 24.9 million cwt, up 6 percent from a year earlier and the highest on record. Thailand and India account for most the stronger pace of U.S. rice imports in 2017/18, with Thailand accounting for more than 60 percent of these imports. Total U.S. rice supplies remain projected at 249.2 million cwt, 15 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2003/04.
   Total use of U.S. rice in 2017/18 remains forecast at 220.0 million cwt, 11 percent below a year earlier. In 2017/18, both exports and domestic use are limited by much smaller supplies. Total domestic and residual use in 2017/18 remains projected at 120.0 million cwt, 9 percent below a year earlier. 
   Total U.S. rice exports in 2017/18 remain projected at 100.0 million cwt, 14 percent below a year earlier. By class, 2017/18 long-grain exports remain forecast at 71.0 million cwt, 10 percent below a year earlier. The Western Hemisphere is the largest market for U.S. long-grain rice, with the majority of the rice shipped as unmilled rough-rice. Mexico, Central America, Haiti, Venezuela, Canada, and Colombia account for the bulk of the U.S. long-grain exports in the Western Hemisphere. Outside the Western Hemisphere, the Middle East is currently the largest market for U.S. long-grain rice. Combined U.S. medium- and short-grain exports in 2017/18 remain projected at 29.0 million cwt, 24 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2014/15 when a West Coast port strike delayed shipments until early in the 2015/16 market year. 
   By type, rough-rice exports remain projected at 34.0 million cwt, 20 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2011/12. Through late January, there have been virtually no U.S. rough-rice sales to the Middle East. These two regions take exclusively medium- and short-grain rough-rice. U.S. rough-rice sales to top long-grain buyer Venezuela have been well below a year earlier as well. Milled rice exports (combined milled and brown rice exports on a rough-rice basis) remain projected at 66.0 million cwt, 11 percent below a year earlier. 
   U.S. ending stocks in 2017/18 remain forecast at 29.2 million cwt, 37 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2003/04. The stocks-to-use ratio remains estimated at 13.3 percent, well below 18.6 percent a year earlier. Long-grain 2017/18 ending stocks remain forecast at 16.4 million cwt, 47 percent below a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ration of 10.0 percent is well below 17.4 percent a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use-ratio rarely drops below 10 percent. Medium- and short-grain ending stocks remain forecast at 9.3 million cwt, 19 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 2008/09. The medium- and short-grain 2017/18 stocks-to-use ratio of 16.6 percent is little changed from a year earlier. ∆
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