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Larger Area Estimate Partly Is Reason For Higher Yield
The 2013/14 U.S. rice crop is projected at 185.1 million cwt, up 2 percent from last month’s forecast but still 7 percent below a year earlier. By class, the U.S. 2013/14 long-grain crop is projected at 126.5 million cwt, up 1.8 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 12 percent below a year earlier and the second smallest since 1997/98. Combined medium- and short-grain production is projected at 58.5 million cwt, up 1.9 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 6 percent larger than a year earlier.
This month’s upward revision in total U.S. rice production is based on both a higher yield forecast and a larger area estimate. At a record 7,511 pounds per acre, the 2013/14 all rice average yield is 105 pounds higher than last month’s forecast and 62 pounds above a year earlier.
Planted area is estimated at 2.49 million acres, up 15,000 acres from the previous estimate but still 8 percent below a year earlier and the smallest U.S. rice plantings since 1987/88. Area estimates were raised slightly this month for Arkansas, California, Louisiana, and Texas, but lowered for Mississippi and Missouri, with Mississippi’s 2013/14 area estimate lowered 19 percent from a month earlier. Production forecasts were raised for Arkansas, California, Louisiana, and Texas, but lowered for Mississippi and Missouri.
Rice plantings in 2013/14 are estimated to be lower than a year earlier in Arkansas and Missouri, but higher than last year in Louisiana and Texas and unchanged in California.
Record yields are projected higher than a year earlier in 2013/14 for all reported States except Arkansas and Mississippi, with record yields projected for Louisiana, Missouri, and Texas. At 8,300 pounds per acre, California’s 2013/14 rice yield is up 2 percent from a year earlier.
Rice Harvest in the Delta Remains Behind the Normal Pace
For the week ending September 8, 24 percent of the U.S. 2013/14 rice crop was reported harvested, behind 50 percent reported last year and behind the U.S. 5-year average of 34 percent.
Data from the August 27 Rice Stocks report indicate total U.S. rice stocks on August 1, 2013 of 36.4 million cwt (combined milled- and rough-rice stocks on a rough-basis), up 5 percent from the August WASDE forecast but 11 percent below a year earlier.
U.S. 2013/14 Rice Supplies Are Projected To Decline 7 percent
Total U.S. rice supplies in 2013/14 are projected at 244.0 million cwt, 2 percent above last month’s forecast but 7 percent smaller than a year earlier. These are the smallest U.S. rice supplies since 2003/04.
At 36.4 million cwt, the 2013/14 carryin is 1.9 million cwt above last month’s forecast but 11 percent smaller than a year earlier.
Imports of all rice in 2013/14 remain forecast at 22.5 million cwt, 7 percent above a year earlier and the second highest on record. Long-grain imports remain projected at a record 20.0 million cwt, 7 percent higher than a year earlier.
Combined medium- and short-grain imports remain projected at 2.5 million cwt, almost 8 percent above a year earlier. Specialty rice from Thailand accounts for the bulk of U.S. rice imports of medium- and short-grain rice. Arborio rice from Italy accounts for much of the remainder of U.S. imports of medium- and short-grain rice.
U.S. 2013/14 Export Forecast Raised to 98.0 Million Cwt
Total use of U.S. rice in 2013/14 is projected at 214.0 million cwt, up 6.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 5 percent below a year earlier.
Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2013/14 is projected at 116.0 million cwt, up 4.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 2 percent smaller than a year earlier.
Combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use is projected at 32.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 11 percent larger than a year earlier.
Total exports in 2013/14 are projected at 98.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 8.5 percent below a year earlier.
Through September 5, data from the weekly U.S. Export Sales report combined U.S. commercial shipments and outstanding sales 13 percent behind a year earlier. Except for U.S. milled medium- and short-grain exports, total commitments are behind a year earlier for all classes of U.S. rice exports. By market, outstanding sales to the Western Hemisphere are well behind a year earlier.
U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2013/14 are projected at 30.0 million cwt, down 0.4 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 18 percent below a year earlier. These are the lowest U.S. ending stocks since 2007/08. The stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 14.0 percent, down slightly from 16.2 percent in 2012/13.
By class, the 2013/14 U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 18.4 million cwt, up 1 percent from last month’s forecast but 16 percent smaller than a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 12.3 percent, up from 13.2 percent a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain carryout is projected at 9.2 million cwt, up almost 9 percent from last month’s forecast but 24 percent below a year earlier. The medium/short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 14.4 percent, down from 20.4 percent in 2012/13 and the lowest since 1998/99.
U.S. 2013/14 Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Raised for Medium- and Short-Grain Rice
The 2013/14 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice remains forecast at $14.00-$15.00 per cwt, compared with $14.40 per cwt a year earlier. On an annual basis, the impact of tighter U.S. supplies is expected to nearly offset the effects of larger exportable supplies in Asia. The combined medium- and short- grain 2013/14 U.S. SAFP is forecast at $16.30-$17.30 per cwt, up 50 cents on both the high and low ends from last month’s forecast. This compares with a 2012/13 revised SAFP for medium- and short-grain of $16.70 per cwt. Both monthly reported cash prices and marketings for 2012/13 for all rice and by class were revised in the August 27 Agricultural Prices.
In late August, NASS reported a mid-August U.S. long-grain rough-rice price of $15.10 per cwt, unchanged from the revised July estimate. The August preliminary price is the highest since January 2009. The July price was raised 10 cents to $15.10 per cwt. For combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid-August NASS price was reported at $17.30 per cwt, up 90 cents from the revised July price. The July price was lowered 50 cents from the midmonth estimate to $16.40 per cwt.∆
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